This is abot the Russian guys from Vtsiom, Vox Populi Fund and LalitrumLab. Their forecast on 11.4 was 50.7% for Maduro and 48.8% for Capriles. That's not bad at all. You can see some stuff in Voxpopuli but it doesn't specify much. The Ruski said they took two forecasts they then joined: a first, "inertia forecast", which analysed the longer trend. Here Maduro was going down but not fast enough. Then they carried out what they call a "dynamic forecast", in which they put a higher weight to the events relating to daily events. Here Capriles was overtaking Maduro. What I don't get is how they measured those events. We did not have debates.
I'll write to these blokes. As they are 3 private institutions, I doubt I will get many details, but I'll try.
|I use military green for Maduro because...well, that's Maduro|