Wednesday, 2 September 2015

Chavismo, xenophobia and the world


Former coup monger Diosdado Cabello, current president of the National Assembly and one of the key Chavista strongmen, announced today the state of emergency has been extended to further municipalities of Táchira, the most densely populated Venezuelan state bordering Colombia. He said the border could be also closed along the states of Zulia and Apure. On the side: Cabello's brother is minister of Industry and Cabello's wife is minister of Tourism. His daughter often appears in flashy videos sponsored by the government singing for the "revolution" and the late caudillo Chávez.

The ombudsman of the people, Tarek William Saab, a man who is supposed to represent all Venezuelans but who is best known for writing poems to Chávez, said Colombia should ask the world to pay homage to Venezuela because Venezuela has accepted six million Colombian immigrants. He was referring to the millions of Colombians who have arrived to my country not just since Chavismo is in power but for many decades now. We don't really know how many they are as the Venezuelan registries are an absolute mess.

Imagine some big public official in Germany or the USA - not Trump but someone already elected- would say the same thing about Turkey or Mexico.


Tarek

Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Venezuela under Chavismo, 1 September 2015


Few blogs get into some of the details of the shortage economy generated by the Chavista madness in Venezuela. Here foreigners will get some of those little facts.

If you are living in Venezuela and you have an ID ending in 0 or 1, you can buy products with controlled prices on Mondays and Saturdays. We are talking about a lot of products, from sugar, rice, coffee, soap, tooth paste and nappies to chicken, meat and cooking oil.

If your ID ends in 2 or 3, you can buy them on Tuesdays and Saturdays.
If your ID ends in 4 or 5, you can buy them on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
If your ID ends in 6 or 7, you can buy them on Thursdays and Sundays.
If your ID ends in 8 or 9, you can buy them on Fridays and Sundays.

People who have a real job will have difficulty reaching the supermarket on a working day. Those who can buy regulated products on Sundays and not on Saturdays are the ones more screwed up because supermarkets are usually empty late on Saturdays...and it is not like the products under price control are often available during the other days.

In some supermarkets, particularly in Caracas, which suffers less severe shortages than most other areas of Venezuela, you might have to let your finger prints be checked.

Tampons? You can buy them on Thursday and Sunday if your ID ends in 7...if you are lucky

Sunday, 30 August 2015

Wenn Ausländer nicht mehr nötig sind im Sozialismus des 21. Jahrhunderts


Die Maduro-Regierung versucht, den freien Fall in Hinblick auf die Wahlen der Nationalversammlung Anfang Dezember zu vermeiden. Dafür hat die Regierung die Grenzen zwischen Venezuela und Kolumbien im dichtbevölkerten Bundesstaat Táchira geschlossen und Tausende Kolumbianer ohne gültige Aufenthaltsgenehmigung des Landes verwiesen.

Dieses Foto ist noch von den Zeiten als Chávez noch lebte: "Kinder von Scheisseinwanderern: raus!" Gemeint sind vor allem die Kinder vieler Europäer, die mit der Chávez-Regierung nicht sympathisierten


Nun häufen sich Berichte über wie die Militärs Illegale anderswo festnehmen. Hier kann man zum Beispiel lesen, wie die Guardia Nacional im Groß-Caracas-Gebiet 21 Ausländer ohne gültige Aufenthaltsgenehmigung festnahm...einige von ihnen sollen "privates Eigentum besetzt haben". Man wusste schon seit vielen Jahren, dass es überall Menschen gab, die illegal Wohnungen besetzten und es sind nicht nur Ausländer: es sind Menschen, die leer stehende Wohnungen, oft Wohnungen, die noch nicht fertig gestellt waren, besetzen und diese dann an andere Menschen "vermieten". Dies hat Chávez toleriert, ja befördert, da seine Regierung nicht schnell genug Sozialwohnungen bauen konnte (er hatte weniger Sozialwohnungen pro Jahr gekauft als die Regierung Caldera II, die nur ein Bruchteil der Petrodollars erzielen konnte). 

Nun werden die Ausländer unter den Okkupas+ gezielt als Kriminelle identifiziert. Wahrscheinlich wird man auch sagen, dass die USA-Regierung und die Opposition diese Menschen nach Venezuela gebracht hat.

Diese Maßnahmen der Regierung können in die Hose gehen. Einerseits kann sie die Ausländerfeindlichkeit einiger Gruppen benutzen. Anderseits gibt es jede Menge Venezolaner, die die Ausländerfeindlichkeit ablehnen oder selbst Einwanderer ersten Grades sind (wir sind alle schließlich Einwanderer).

Friday, 28 August 2015

Venezuela's fall


The Venezuelan regime is organising today a march in Caracas in order to blame a lot of the Venezuelan mess on Colombia and what it considers "the paramilitary supported by the extreme right". 
Colombians can buy these without any trouble, Venezuelans can't

The regime also says the Venezuelan opposition wanted to kill Daniella Cabello, the daughter of military Diosdado Cabello. Daniella is the Venezuelan version of Uzbekistan Gulnara Karimova...without the brains.

Today a76-year old woman was trampled to death in one of the many mass stampedes taking place in Venezuela in the context of the shortage economy...what Chavista apologists abroad consider part of the "economic war".

In little more than three months the National Assembly elections should take place and the regime is trying everything it can to avoid absolute disaster.

The average price of a barrel of oil in 2015 is about 53 dollars, a bit less for a Venezuelan barrel (currently around $34 but we are talking about average). The average price back in 1998 was $12. 53 dollars of today are about $36.2 of 1998, the year before Chávez came to power. That means the Venezuelan regime is still getting much more money than what the previous government was getting. And yet poverty levels are now back to the worst times before Chávez and the murder rate is over three times what it was back then.

The Central Bank of Venezuela stopped publishing any real piece of information a long time ago.

This is Venezuela today. The repression will keep increasing while Venezuela's neighbours try to ignore it as much as they can.

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Ausländerfeindlichkeit als neue Triebkraft der bolivarischen "Revolution"


Wenn es nicht mehr geht mit der Wirtschaft, muss Maduro auf Ausländerfeindlichkeit zurückgreifen. Jetzt gibt es einen Ausnahmezustand an der Grenze mit Kolumbien. Die Militärs werfen Tausende Kolumbianer aus dem Lande. Mehrere ihrer Häuser wurden von Bulldozern zertrümmert. Das kommt bei einigen in Venezuela gut an. Bei vielen anderen eher nicht. 

Maduro macht Uribe und die "Rechtsextremisten Kolumbiens" für die Mangelwirtschaft in Venezuela verantwortich. Der Schmuggel aber, der auch zum großen Teil von venezolanischen Militärs verwaltet und vorangetrieben wird, konnte nur dadurch blühen, dass Maduro weiterhin die verfehlte Wirtschaftspolitik des verstorbenen Caudillos Chávez verteidigt hat. Die offiziellen Preise vieler Produkte in Venezuela haben nichts, aber nichts mit ihrem Wert zu tun. Da die Produktion zusammenbricht, gibt es im Lande nichts mehr zu tun, als subventionierte Produkte zu kaufen und wieder im Schwarzmarkt oder im Ausland nach Schmuggelaktionen zu verkaufen.

Was ich von Freunden und Verwandten außerhalb Caracas höre ist ziemlich schlimm. Die Mangelzustände werden immer grösser. 


Tuesday, 4 August 2015

Fast Plünderung in Makro, Valencia / Almost Looting in Makro, Valencia



That's the mood in Venezuela. A few days ago the looting took place in San Felix, Guayana.

Things got under control...sort of.

Sunday, 2 August 2015

The Chávez farce: import substitution



12 September 1999: Chávez unveiled a "plan" to diversify the economy and make it less dependent on oil.
End of 2009: One of Chávez's military pals, Jesse Chacón, announced in one of his many positions as minister for everything a program for import substitution.
January 2010: Chávez announced a new fund to substitute imports
September 2014: Another of the former military coupsters, now minister Rodolfo Clemente Marco Torres, unveiled a plan to substitute imports.
1 August 205: Maduro makes public a new plan to substitute imports and diversify the economy.


There were many more declarations in the last 15 years about the regime's commitment to diversifying the economy. Actually: Venezuelan governments have repeated similar wishes for the past 5 decades or so but since Chavismo is in power, Venezuela's productivity has only known one way: down. 

The truth is that in 1998 Venezuela's non-oil related exports accounted for about 15% of the total and nowadays it is less than 4%.

Still, a change will be extremely difficult. According to Hinterlaces (not a pollster I trust much, but I think they do have it right here), most Venezuelans still think the fixed currency exchange rate of 6.3 Bolivars for a dollar should be maintained.

Venezuelans do not know what a free currency exchange is. Nobody, much less economists, wants or can explain them how things work in the world and what currency exchange rates have to do with productivity.