GDP, Venezuela, Nigeria and Norway

Sycophants for the Venezuelan regime, people like Mark Weisbrot in the USA, often talked about the impressive GDP growth shown in the last decade or so. Of course, such impressive GDP rates are no longer present. But: did they ever mean something, at all?

GDP growth is, at most, a faint indicator of something. It can hardly be used to compared countries with different population rates and levels of actual development.

 Look at the following chart. It shows simple GDP growth according to the World Bank for three oil-exporting countries: Nigeria, Norway and Venezuela. As you can see, Nigeria supposedly "outperformed both Venezuela and Norway during most of the last 20 years. The Nigerian government didn't have the same amount of propaganda consultants as Chávez's regime. Few if anyone was talking about development there. 

There is another thing you can notice: both Venezuela and Nigeria show a very unstable growth. Periods of huge hikes switch to deep falls. Norway, on the other hand, remains smoothly just over the positive line.

Positive and negative years don't balance each other. What gets destroyed is gone. You cannot build on destroyed value. It is obviously much easier to show a rise if you firstly fall but that rise means almost nothing. You don't really have to be an economist to understand this.

The data reaches only up to 2012. Last year Venezuela grew by only 1.2% and that growth was based on a massive spending of loaned money. There was hardly any investment. It was money to buy food and appliances and a little bit of housing - but hardly enough - for yet a new couple of election rounds, elections that are supposed to show Venezuela has a democracy even if there isn't the slightest remain of rule of law. 

Venezuela's GDP is likely to stay very low in the coming years and the actual GDP per capita will keep going down as long as Chavismo is in power. Chavismo and its sycophants abroad will blame it on capitalism or some US embargo. Norway is likely to keep its humble but steady growth.

Of course it's not le Carré, it's Graham Greene (updated)

Read the story at Huffington Post...really.

If this happens just for the power at a Venezuelan embassy, imagine what can happen for the position of president in a caudillismo-prone feudal Venezuela.

Now read what the Nairobi newspaper The Star wrote about the issue. It contains further details for a typical Venezuelan case: a bottle of Johny Walker and a fixer.

And meanwhile, the military president Chávez is telling opposition candidate Capriles - yet again - that he  is a Nazi. In case you don't know: Capriles' maternal great-grandparents were murdered by Nazis and his grandmother hardly survived.

Still, German deputy Sahra Wagenknecht has repeatedly minimized Chavismo's anti-Semitic comments telling us Chávez's comments were taken "out of context". She considers herself an expert on the issue. I will return to that...also dealing with those "contexts".

He would have written such a story

Death at the embassy or The Dishonourable Consul?

A Venezuelan embassy employee in Nairobi, first secretary Dwight Sagaray, has just been detained, in relation with the murder of Olga Fonseca,  Venezuelan ambassador to Kenya. Fonseca had arrived on 15 July to replace Gerardo Carrillo Silva. Geraldo Carillo had been previously accused by several Kenyan employees of sexual abuse. Carrillo fled Kenya before he could be interrogated (OK, he had diplomatic immunity). According to some employees, Ms Fonseca had pressurized them to take back their accusations against the former ambassador. She was found strangled last Friday.

Nairobi, Kenya

Things are getting weirder by the day around the Bolivarian employees.

Titanic versus Congo

I just read there are all kinds of "memorial services" for the Titanic tragedy of 1912. The thing is that not only the producers of the Titanic film and the guys selling memorabilia are onto that but a lot of other people in the West.

While the Titanic tragedy led to the improvement of security standards for navigation I wonder what's the point on the whole thing. I wonder why nobody seems to remember the nearly 1 million deaths of the Second Congo War - a war that is still not quite finished - or the over 300000 deaths of the current Somali conflict - almost nobody, that is, outside those living there and those who fled from those places.

Perhaps it's time for us to think about that while we are eating some delicious fish caught in Somali waters by some EU, US or Chinese crawlers or while using some device that contains Congolese cobalt.

Can we ask the deputies of our constituencies about what our countries can do for sustainable development in those places?

Chávez's best friend in Africa is dead

Gaddafi, one of Africa's many dictators, has been killed. Unlike Daniel, I think it would have been better to have him go to trial. Chávez was more likely to keep talking in defence of the African dictator thereby provoking even more rejection. Now Chávez will mention Gaddafi a couple of times, but that will be it, just like he did when he mourned FARC terrorist Reyes. Daniel Duquenal says trial in Den Haag hasn't brought peace to the countries of those dictators, probably referring to such cases as Serbia's and Liberia's. But then: war in both Serbia and Liberia was over way before those criminals were captured. Gaddafi was a mass murderer, but I think having him on trial and then behind bars would have been a better warning for others. Dictators behind bars are the exception. But that is all a guess. I am happy the war in Libya is finally getting to an end and I wish  the country gets onto the path of stability and sustainable development.

It is quite revealing that at this hour, hours after Gaddafi's death, the Chávez state media hasn't said much about it. There is only one piece stating it is unclear whether Gaddafi has died. In Venezuelan newspapers you have already a lot of information on it all. Why is the Chávez state media so slow? Because they are waiting for the Venezuelan caudillo to say something.

Finally, I have to say this: I wish Western leaders were from now on a little bit more consistent...but I reckon that's too much to ask...oil and weapon deals trump human rights.

Just some groovy music

It's not from Venezuela, but from Senegal: Baobab. The Senegalese music was greatly influenced by Caribbean music (mainly Cuban, but not only), which in turn was the product of African music with an European touch.

I had the privilege to talk to a couple of these musicians. They are not just brilliant but also extremely friendly.

Die einzige Regierung, die immer noch Gaddafi unterstützt:

Hier könnt Ihr direkt die Meinung der Chávez-Medien mal lesen.

Ein "Expert", der Argentinier Bueno Abad, sagt bei Telesur, die Medien im Westen und in den arabischen Ländern (lies Al-Jazeera) fokusieren sich zu sehr auf Gaddafis Familie und beachten nicht die Opfer, die durch Nato und Rebellen verursacht werden. Abad sagt nichts von den Menschenrechtsverletzungen der Gaddafi-Regierung. Ist er nicht schlimmer als FOX News oder CNN?

Ich hatte niemals, nicht mal zu Sowjetzeiten, eine so einseitige Einstellung gesehen wie die der Chávez-Anhänger.

Irgendwie wollen diese Leute sich gar nicht die Frage stellen, was die meisten Araber überhaupt darüber denken. Gaddafi ist einer der besten Freunde des Diktators Hugo Chávez. Alles ist ein Komplot des Westens.

What do you think Chávez told Gaddafi?

I read in Lenta some people think- again - that Gaddafi is getting ready to leave Libya. The Libyan dictator would apparently be ready to transfer power to his minister of Justice - if there is a cease fire and "NATO forces leave Libya". Fat chance. Anyway: two Airbuses came from South Africa. Some of Gaddafis relatives and government honchos may consider going to Venezuela.

There is a Venezuelan representative (or shall I say a Chávez representative) talking to Gaddafi officials in the Tunesian island of Djerba.

Is this true or yet another rumour? Or do Gaddafi's relatives reckon Venezuela may still be a good place for shopping? Stay tuned.

Should I go? How long could I stay there?

Menschenrechte, Hugo Chávez und seine Sorge für Diktator Gaddafi

Der venezolanische Kommandant* Chávez fragt nun, wo 200 Milliarden Dollar an libyschen Geldern wären, die der libysche Staat in USA-Banken angelegt hätte. "Wer versucht, die Währungsreserven Libyens zu stehlen, die die USA einfror?"

Na, Hugo: willst Du nur sehr intelligente Fragen stellen oder vielleicht auch  mögliche Antworten geben? Wer? Und welche Beweise hast Du dafür, dass das Geld gestohlen wird? Was wurde genau im Namen des Staates und was im Namen eines anderen angelegt? Weisst er das?

Gern würde ich auch wissen, ob Chávez wirklicht denkt, Diktator Gaddafi vertretete immer noch Libyen.

Gern würde ich vom ehemaligen Putschist wissen, ob das Geld für den Ferrari und die Villa des Saif al-Isam al-Gaddafis, die er in Deutschland gekauft hat, Geld des Gaddafiklans oder Libyens ist. Dieser Ferrari und diese Villa sind nur zwei kleine Beispiele.

Gern würde ich vom venezolanischen Präsidenten lesen, was er über Amnesty-International-Berichte zur Lage in Libyen denkt.

Mädchen in Benghazi: Libysche Stämme sind vereint

Vor allem würde ich vom  venezolanischen Caudillo wissen, ob er keinen Unterschied zwischen Führer und Staat, zwischen Regierung und Staat sieht.

Jetzt ist US-Schauspieler und Chávez-Freund Sean Penn nach Venezuela geflogen, um die Schaden zu begrenzen. Selbst Penn hat bemerkt, wie schlecht die öffentliche Liebeserklärungen zu älteren Despoten PR-mässig schlecht sind.

Chávez versucht, durch sein internationales Puppentheater ALBA so zu tun, als würde er eine internationale Friedenskommission für Libyen errichten. In Wirklichkeit will der venezolanische Präsident nur seinem Freund Gaddafi helfen. Wenn Gaddafi fallen würde, würde das ein schlechtes Zeichen für andere "Volksführer" sein.

Die Lage in Libyen ist immer noch sehr schwierig. Das Land kann lange Zeit einen Bürgerkrieg erleben. Das ist nicht wegen Liebe zu Gaddafi. Das Land ist, im Gegensatz zu Ägypten und eher wie Venezuela, viel mehr von Erdöleinnahmen und daher vom Staat abhängig. Die Gaddafidiktatur hat seit vielen Jahren eine Reihe von Sicherheitskräften gebildet, die sich gegenseitig in Schach halten und sonst nur dafür sind, die Macht des Diktators zu garantieren. Gaddafi hat, genau wie Chávez, zahlreiche ausländische "Sicherheitsexperten" ins Land gebracht, die als Prätorianergarde fungieren. 

Libyen und Venezuela sind aber ganz anders. Und dennoch ist der venezolanische Caudillo unruhig geworden.

*zur Benutzung des  Militärtitels: das ist gang und gäbe bei der Regierung. Siehe zB hier

Von Militär zu Militär: Wie die Chávez-Regierung Gaddafi unterstützt

Hahaha, ich scheisse auf Menschenrechte in Ländern, deren Regierungen mein Kommandant-Präsident verteidigt

Aussenminister Nicolas Maduro musste gestern vor der Nationalversammlung reden. Das ist die einzige Möglichkeit der alternativen Parteien, Minister zu befragen -Chávez ist davon ausgeschlossen-.

Die Opposition fragte, wie die Chávez-Regierung ihre Beziehungen zu Gaddafi erklären konnte. Gaddafis Freundschaft zu Chávez ist genauso bekannt wie die Berlusconis. Gaddafi hatte zB vor kurzem die höchste Auszeichnung Venezuelas von Chávez bekommen und Chávez hatte erklärt, Qaddafi sei Libyens Bolívar.

Maduro sagte nun, Al Qaeda-Gruppen seien für das Chaos verantwortlich und Libyen werde  von einem Bürgerkrieg bedroht. Maduro erklärte ferner, die Nachrichtenagenturen "des Imperiums" würden nur mit Vorurteilen informieren. Der  Aussenminister verglich die Berichterstattung der internationalen Medien jetzt mit der Berichterstattung während der 11.4.2002-Demos und des darauffolgenden Coups in Venezuela. Und dann fragte er, warum die Opposition nicht untersucht, wer Irak, Afganistan und Pakistan bombardiert, als ob das mit Venezuela zu tun hätte.

Chávez oder derjenige, der sein Twitter-Konto verwaltet, twitterte währenddessen folgendes:

"So ist das, Kanzler Nicolás, erteil den ultrarechten Yanki-Knechten noch mal eine Lektion. Es lebe Libyen und seine Unabhängigkeit. Gaddafi konfrontiert einen Bürgerkrieg"

Vamos Canciller Nicolás: dales otra lección a esa ultraderecha pitiyanqui! Viva Libia y su Independencia! Kadafi enfrenta una guerra civil!!"

Ihr könnt Daniels Bericht auf Englisch hier lesen. Ich bin lediglich mit einer Sache nicht einverstanden: Gadaffi verachtet die Menschenrechte, er ist aber meines Wissens und laut Experten wie Scholl-Latour und Robert Fisk gar nicht Al-Qaeda-nah. Gaddafi erwähnte diese Terrorgruppe schon, um Angst bei den Europäern einzujagen -vergeblich. Die europäischen Regierung scheinen nur zwei Sachen im Kopf zu haben: den Flüchtlingsstromm zu verhindern und die Erdölgeschäfte so bald wie möglich zu normalisieren. Das ist aber eine andere Geschichte.

Eins ist klar: Chávez bereitet sich vor für die Zeit, wenn das venezolanische Volk massal protestiert...Volk, das seines Erachtens nicht das Volk ist, denn das Volk ist nur, wer hinter ihm steht.

So wie Gadaffi hat Chávez einheimische - die milicias bolivarianas - und ausländische Söldner - die Kubaner der Sicherheitseinheiten-. Im Gegensatz zu Libyen kann Chávez Venezuela nie ganz abschotten. Das Land war allzu sehr mit dem Rest der Welt verbunden, als er an die Macht kam - dies ist etwas, was viele Ausländer gar nicht verstehen-. Diese milicias werden auch nicht so brutal sein wie die in Libyen jetzt. Und dennoch kann man schon erahnen, wie Chávez sich vorbereitet, um seine Macht zu verteidigen.

Klick hier, um die letzten AI-Berichte über Libyen zu lesen

Amnesty ist wahrscheinlich Chávez zufolge eine Abteilung der CIA

Hier für Robert Fisks Artikel in Libyen

Hier für Al-Jazeeras Bericht über Venezuela und Libyen

Libya, Venezuela and the rest

Venezuela's regime goes on supporting Chávez's friend Muammar Gaddafi. Chávez had previously declared Gaddafi was the Simón Bolívar of Libya and he gave him the highest prize there is in Venezuela, the Orden del Libertador. Now you can see how the Venezuelan news agency keeps only reporting Gaddafi's side plus wha Fidel Castro says and some handpicked news on the European-US American reactions. "Telesur reveals campaign of desinformation about Libya", "contradictions within the EU towards Libya" and so on.

You don't read anything about Gaddafi's crimes, about the massacres, about Gaddafi threatening to kill people if they do not surrender. It makes you wonder if Hugo Chávez will also try to use Cuban intelligence people. Cuban security thugs have been in Venezuela for many years now.

Europe

William Hague, Britain's Foreign Secretary, was clumsy at best when he prematurely declared Gaddafi was on his way to Venezuela. He probably wanted to use the impressions public had on Gaddafi to remind them of Chávez.

Again, Europe is proving to be unprepared to deal with this kind of crisis. We hear Cameron saying it is naive to want to prevent weapons export to dictatorships. I want him to explain that statement is naive and his not shameful for Britain.

German Thomas de Maizière seems to be more worried about refugees than about anything else.


Just some of the key places now

Red: places that seem to be liberated from Gaddafi's regime
Green: places were fighting is going on

Some of the sources:
The Guardian
Al Jazeera
Spiegel

Venezuela-Mali-Europe: the cocaine connection, 2 part

Some background here


The Journal du Mali is reporting right now more news about the Boeing 727 that was crashed in Northern Mali after downloading up to 10 tonnes of cocaine and that would have come from Venezuela. As we know, United Nations and Interpol are investigating.

This is what they seem to know now:

• the plane was coming from Venezuela (they don't say what further evidence they have, see below)
• the drug was taken away in 5 4x4 vehicles
• the vehicles may have taken the route to Niger
• the plane was registered in Guinea-Bisseau
• since last November Guinea-Bisseau had requested several West African countries to prohibit the entry of said plane as it was not respecting the flying routes
• the plane had no more rights to fly from 31 October
• the crew had decided to falsify papers as it could no longer fly like that and it had produced papers coming from Saudi Arabia
  
• the transponder shows the flight started in Panama, went on to Colombia, the trace disappeared for several days (???????), then the plane popped up in Cape Verde, continued to Guinea-Bisseau and ended in Mali.
• Several people from neighbouring countries seem to be involved in this issue and "heads may roll very soon"
• the men trying to dismantle the plane were poor inhabitants of the region (something that reminded me of a scene in Lord of War)
  

Now I want to know why a transponder can show first something and then nothing and then something. I also want to know what further proofs they have about Venezuela.

Thinking about Venezuelan-African relations

UPDATED: link is fine now, see here

One

The Venezuelan government keeps silence about the Venezuelan Boeing 727 that (was) crashed in Mali after it had downloaded a lot of cocaine. The German Deutsche Welle tells us the president of Mali, Amadou Toumani Touré finally talked about this incident. He talked on a state TV broadcast in the middle of the night as soon as he got back from a trip to Lybia and Qatar. He said he had not talked earlier because he did not want to hinder the investigations. Touré added the Mali government is collaborating with the neighbours and transmitted information to Interpol.

How long are we going to have to wait to know more details about that plane? From what airport in Venezuela did it set off? Stay tuned.

Two

Now, you may be wondering what Tibisay Lucena, the top woman of the Venezuelan Electoral commission has to do with Mali. I know one of my great-great-grandmothers came from somewhere in Western Africa, but what about Tibi? Was she on a kind of Roots trip?

Well, if you read French or use Google tools to read it, you can go to a site of the Malian government here and read about Tibi's visit to Mali, Senegal and Guinea-Bisseau in April of this year. Or you just go and see the picture of Tibi, Venezuela's business representative in Mali and some Mali functionaries testing one of those machines. The visit was no secret in Venezuela. I read about it in a couple of Venezuelan newspapers and in pro-Hugo grassroot site Aporrea.

As the propaganda site Venezuelanalysis reported back then, the lady in red went to those countries "to share the experience that Venezuela has accumulated over the past ten years with our friends". She wanted to show basically how the Venezuelan voting machines work...or don't work. If you have followed this blog you may know the world's most modern voting system is much slower than manual systems and you may know the paper trail it produces often does not show what the voter actually wanted. Never mind, what is good for a Venezuelan is good for our friends in Africa as well.

From an earlier post you know Hugo has a very particular interest in those three countries in Africa.

Three

In July of 2009 the Guinea-Bisseau police seized a plane with 500 kl. of cocaine with a Venezuelan crew. There was a standoff as the Guinean military tried to stop the police from doing its work. That was not the first time and it won't be the last one. You can read a lot about Guinea-Bisseau's links to drugs trade in The Telegraph.

You can read a little bit about some cocaine seizures in Senegal here and here.

By the way, Ahmadinejad headed to Senegal after he left Venezuela. He is trying to build up ties there.

Four

What am I saying? I haven't got a clue about what is going on but perhaps

• the Venezuelan government should work openly with United Nations to clarify how the cocaine is going from colombia through Venezuela to those three countries.

• those three countries should become more careful about using a voting system that is not reliable (think paper trail, think Germans and Dutch going back to manual voting, think Norway doing it like that all the time)

Now the Venezuelan government can say I am creating a "matriz de opinion". So be it. Just be more transparent.

Venezuela-Mali-Europe: the cocaine connection

A Boeing coming from Venezuela crashed last 5 of November in Gao, Mali, after it had downloaded cocaine in that area and tried to lift off (here in French, here less in Spanish). Interpol is investigating now.

How come? Where did the plane set off in Venezuela? Was it from Maiquetía, the main airport? Is it possible for the Veneezuelan military not to notice up to 10 tones of cocaine in a Boeing setting off for Africa? Did the plane depart from La Esmeralda, the huge military airfield in the middle of the jungle in Amazonas State? Or from somewhere else? From where then? That is a big big plane.

In any case, what the authorities found were the burnt rests of the plane. The drug dealers had set in flame and run away. Still, they found some rests.

I wonder if this has anything to do with the following:

The Venezuelan government has been increasing its ties with West African countries for some years. Here you can read (in French) an article in an official Mali site about Hugo's visit to Mali, about the visit of Mali's president to Venezuela, about how Hugo payed for over 100 social houses, a school and more in Mali, how he promised more and about how Hugo showed a big interest in the geography of Mali, on the Niger Riger and irrigation, about "mining interests" and deals of Venezuela in Mali and more (I will go back to that article later on and translate it).

All possibilities I see:

1. Some mid to high ranking military is using the new Mali-Venezuela links to trade in drugs behind the president's back
2. The top in the government is involved (I don't think so, too crazy)
3. Some drug dealers who have nothing to do with chavismo are involved and who just found a way to get around minor corrupt military in Venezuela
   
4. Someone is trying to pretend the Venezuelan government is involved in the whole thing

So far I go for 1. Too early to tell.
It is an irony they found the plane close to Gao or "GAO"

Update: see my Spanish post for more details


Update 2: It was a Boeing 727!

Chavez, al-Bashir and Miss Universe

Today in Doha Hugo Chávez defended Sudan's president and war criminal al-Bashir once again. He even invited al-Bashir to visit Venezuela. Hugo's dear friend, Argentina's president Cristina Kirchner, left the hall as soon as al-Bashir arrived as she wanted to avoid having a picture of her taken next to the war criminal. She knows such a picture would haunt her in the future.

Meanwhile, Venezuela's Miss Universe 2008 said "she had a lot of fun in Guantanamo". She was there "in support for the US troops stationed there" or something like that. Oh, my, it is so embarrassing to be Venezuelan these days.


Update: this will be forgotten in Venezuela very soon, but I am sure in Sudan a little bit more suffering is added to the avalanche of it the people in Darfur got. Every day raids against the Southern population are carried out where women are raped and killed.

Translated from Al-Intibaha with Google Tools:

Chavez .. Bashir to visit Venezuela

Doha Intibaha

shaf.jpg Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's support for Sudan and the arrogance of his anti-colonialism, which led the world against countries hostile to the principle of dominance and vulnerability of people, Chavez said he is proud of many positions of the Sudanese President and his people. For his part, Field Marshal Omar Al-Bashir, the price of the courage of Venezuelan President Chavez and his supervisor in support of Arab and Islamic peoples and al-Bashir announced his willingness to visit the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, and to thank the people of Venezuela and its leader .. This came in a meeting that brought Chavez Bashir yesterday morning the Qatari capital Doha on the sidelines of the summit, which began its work in Qatar yesterday.
Last Updated (Wednesday, 01 April 2009)
لتقى شافيز .. البشير يزور فنزويلا

الدوحة الانتباهة

shaf.jpgجدد الرئيس الفنزويلي هوجو شافيز دعمه للسودان ومواقفه المناهضة للغطرسة التي تقودها دول الاستعمار العالمي ضد الدول المناوئة لمبدأ الهيمنة واستضعاف الشعوب وقال شافيز إنه يعتز كثيراً بمواقف الرئيس السوداني وشعبه. من جهته ثمن المشير عمر البشير شجاعة الرئيس الفنزويلي شافيز ومواقفه المشرفة في مساندة الشعوب العربية والإسلامية وأعلن البشير عن استعداده لزيارة العاصمة الفنزويلية كاركاس وتقديم الشكر لشعب فنزويلا وقائدها.. جاء ذلك في اللقاء الذي جمع البشير بشافيز صباح أمس بالعاصمة القطرية الدوحة على هامش أعمال القمة التي بدأت أعمالها بقطر يوم أمس.

One of Chavez's friends

There were elections in Zimbabwe. Now they are counting the votes.
Do you think Mugabe, one of Chávez's best friends, will have to relinquish power?