Where is Maduro going to go?

First of all: we need to be cautious. Maduro is going to cling to power a little bit more. This is not 1989 Eastern Europe. Venezuela is not Czechoslovakia, Putin is not Gorbachev who cared about human rights and stuff but rather an ex KGB who feels humiliated by the West and China's GDP is more than 20 times what it was back then and it is a country looking for good colonies. There are lots of people around Maduro who are not only guilty of crimes against humanity but also a lot who are actually involved in drug trafficking and other stuff that might have repercussions even if the new government puts in place a very generous amnesty law. Big Chavistas know they might not have such a quiet life as their counterparts in Eastern Europe back in the nineties because they have made enemies everywhere.

Yanukovich lives close to Moscow but he speaks Russian better than Maduro, Cabello or Flores

Let's see Maduro's options very soon:

1) Staying in Venezuela as a normal citizen: this would mean he would need to have lots of security guards around him all the time and yet he won't be able  to move much: even if no one would touch him, he would be booed everywhere he went all the time, at the very least.

2) Going to Cuba: a lot of people take this as the more likely option but they forget Cuba's regime is largely counting on Venezuela's blood to survive. When Chavismo falls - and it will fall - Castristas will have other concerns. They definitely do not want Maduro there.

3) Going to Mexico: this might be an option if Maduro decides to go to some hacienda in some remote area of Mexico and the current president, lefty Obrador, gives him also protection round the clock.

4) Going to some country in Western Europe: this is possible but probably less so than option 3. First of all: Maduro and his people would not be able to keep up with their lifestyle without getting noticed and Venezuelan expats would make his life difficult: Cilia Flores would not be able to go shopping just lik that in the streets of Zurich or Paris. There are too many Venezuelans there and we live in the Age of the Mobile.

5) Going to Russia: this seems like an option as there are fewer Venezuelans there, Putin still has control of the country even if his popularity is going down. Still, I still cannot picture him spending his days in Moscow or Saint Petersburg, surrounded by mostly Russian speaking people. 

6) The same goes for Belarus but much more so than Russia.

We need to try to picture all this so that we can understand Maduro´s state of mind. Take into account that this is also in the minds of dozens and dozens of other Chavistas. 

I am currently not saying anything more. He has to go. Democracy must finally arrive to Venezuela as it arrived to the Czech Republic, to Estonia, to Eastern Germany. We need to show Maduro that if he tries to stay in Venezuela even though nobody wants him is going to be for him much worse than options 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 10000.

At this moment I think Maduro's best options are Mexico or Russia.

Cuando caiga el chavismo

Cuando caiga el chavismo es muy probable, aunque no totalmente seguro, que la dictadura cubana se acercará a su fin. Cuando caiga el chavismo el régimen del clan Ortegua en Nicaragua también caerá...si es que no ha salido antes. Evidentemente, los boliburgueses no ven esos países como países en los que vivir en exilio. Muy pocos de ellos pueden imaginarse viviendo en Rusia y menos en Bielorrusia.

Creo que debemos discutir de manera abierta qué es lo que va a pasar con esta gente cuando caiga el chavismo y qué es lo que están pensando en este momento.

Diosdado Cabello y su clan

Nicolás Maduro, Cilia Flores y sus clanes

Tibisay Lucena

Vladimir (Vladimir como Lenin) Padrino

Tareck El Aissami

Gustavo González López

etc.

Recordemos esto: la dictadura de Pinochet, las dictaduras de Europa Oriental y la dictadura del Apartheid en Suráfrica cayeron en momentos en que no tenían apoyo ni de los Estados Unidos ni de Rusia (o su antecesor, la Unión Soviética) y en tiempos en que China era menos del 1 (uno) por ciento de lo que es ahora pese a que su población no se ha duplicado desde aquel entonces.

Rusia y China juegan ahora a Venezuela. Rusia lo hace de manera muy abierta, pero China también está plenamente en el juego.

¿Qué podemos hacer para que esta gente y todos sus compañeros acepten un cambio democrático?
¿Cómo nos imaginamos la vida de esta gente al año, a los dos años del fin del régimen chavista?

Die venezolanische Opposition im Spiegel

Endlich hat Der Spiegel ein Interview mit einem Oppositionspolitiker Venezuelas veröffentlicht...es war ein kurzer Text, man konnte aber zumindest direkter die Position der Mehrheit Venezuelas auf Deutsch lesen, als es der Fall war. Hier eine Referenz auf Spanisch.

Bis jetzt waren vor allem die NZZ, die eine befriedigende bis gute Analyse über die venezolanische Lage geliefert hatte.

Venezuelan politicians do not want to be in congress, they want to be caciques

Venezuelan deputies don't want to spend much time at the National Assembly. We have seen this before: most prefer to be mayors of a small city in a poor area than a deputy in Caracas. The reason is simple: they have more power, more money and more possibilities to give employment to their people.

We saw that with the PSUV deputies and we see it now with the opposition deputies.

Examples:

Deputy Larissa González now wants to be the governor of Delta Amacuro.

Deputy Carlos Ramos wants to be deputy of Mérida.

Mind: these people were elected as deputies just 5 months ago!

We should have an open discussion before National Assembly elections: do you want to be deputy just to use the position as a platform?

Politische Gefangene in Venezuela: Ledezma

Seit Februar 2015 ist der Bürgermeister von Caracas, der Oppositionelle Antonio Ledezma, ein politischer Gefangener der Regierung Maduros.

Die erste Anhörung beim Gericht ist schon neunmal verschoben worden. Das ist gang und gäbe im "Sozialismus des 21. Jahrhunderts".

Amnesty International kritisiert das ganze Verfahren.

Die deutsche extremlinke Partei Die Linke unterstützt das chavistische Regime weiterhin.

Politischer Gefangener - einer unter vielen - in Venezuela

Maduro's message to the military caste

Maduro had announced a "sacudón", a sort of "economic and political shakeup. I didn't expect but a couple of announcements of totally insufficient measures to tackle the economic breakdown and a lot of palaver about the Empire, the imaginary economic war and how good socialism was. We got absolutely no announcement but a lot of palaver. At the end the state channels showed a special video about the love story of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores. It couldn't get more surreal. 

There was one real message and that Maduro's message to the military. He started his boring speech with threats against those who dare "offend" the army. This came after the opposition criticised Vladimir Padrino, chief of staff, who declared soldiers should be political and the army was to take a political position. 

Since February 1999 the regime has done everything to turn the military caste into full political actors and the managers of everything, in complete opposition to the very constitution the regime leaders introduced. The constitution was nothing but a facade to the outside world.

In any case, Maduro now said the opposition would not be able to divide the army because "the army knew what happens to those who went along with the opposition". He even explained the generals who tried to "take sides with the opposition" (that is, to criticize the current system) not only didn't get jobs with a new government but ended up in jail. He is right. Below you have a list of the Defence Ministers since Chávez became president in 1999. I haven't been able to find reliable information about what some of them are doing right  now, but you can see the pattern.

The first defence minister Chávez had broke with him but he is now basically retired and invisible. The only civilian  in that list, the extreme left oligarch Rangel, is playing his usual role as state journalist.

Two former ministers are ambassadors. One of them, Bellavia, was one of the worst students in his military studies and that really showed every time he opened his mouth, not that the others were precisely rhetorical models.

Four other ministers are currently governors to different states. One of them is currently on a clinch with the minister of Interior, another military coup monger, so he may have to go soon.

Now Maduro was telling the military caste that any official wanting to belong to the Bolivarian coterie needs to be an active agent of the regime.

The executive is now bluntly cocking a snook at anyone who demands respect for the rule of law or a little bit of separation of powers. The government is  nervous because it is running out of money. Yesterday Maduro received the Chinese leader, Xi, and was so submissive to him as not even Venezuelan presidents during the 1958-1998 period were towards US presidents.

More and more people are scunnered with the government. At the same time, they are disappointed with the opposition politicians' behaviour.

In this context, Maduro's message was basically for the military. Other than that, he kept procrastinating. 

Defence Ministers	Term	Current Status
Raúl Alejandro Salazar Rodríguez 29-4-1950	Feb 1999-Feb     2000	retired, critical of Chavismo
Ismael Eliezer Hurtado Soucre 30-1-1950	Feb 2000-Feb 2001	?
José Vicente Rangel Vale 10-7-1921	Feb 2001-Apr 2002	journalist (for the State)
Lucas Enrique Rincón Romero 1-2-1950	Apr 2002-Jul 2004	ambassador to Portugal
José Luis Prieto	Jul 2002-Jan 2004	? His nephew, a businessman, was married to one of Chávez's daughters
Jorge Luis García Carneiro 8-2-1952	Jan 2004-Jul 2005	governor of Vargas
Ramón Orlando Maniglia Ferreira 31-08-1952	Jul 2005-Jun 2007	?  Apparently owns a Cessna. Francia 2012
Raúl Isaías Baduel 6-07-1955	Jun 2006-Jul 2007	in jail
Gustavo Reyes Rangel Briceño 16-8-1956	Jul 2007- Mar 2009	in jail in 2010
Ramón Alonso Carrizales Rengifo 8-11-1952	Mar 2009- Jan 2010	governor of Apure
Carlos José Mata Figueroa 30-10-1957	Jan 2010- Jan 2012	governor of Nueva Esparta
Henry de Jesús Rangel Silva 28-8-1961	Jan     2012– Oct 2012	governor of Trujillo
Diego Alfredo Molero Bellavia 12-1-1960	Oct 2012 - Jul 2013	ambassador to Brazil
Carmen Teresa Meléndez Rivas	Jul 2013	current minister

Noch eine junge Venezolanerin von der Polizei getötet

Heute ist eine junge Frau aus meiner Heimatstadt, Geraldine Moreno an ihren Wunden gestorben. Sie war gerade 23 Jahre alt. Es gab eine Demo in ihrer Nähe. Sie war aber dabei, Volleyball zu spielen. Ein bolivarischer Polizist hat ihr ins Gesicht geschossen. So wahllos gehen diese Menschen mit ihren Waffen um.

Währenddessen protestieren die Menschen in Caracas. Daniel hat ein interessantes Foto hier.

Es geht nicht gut zu Hause

Venezuelans in Berlin

Venezuelans are right now in Berlin supporting pluralism, honesty and accountability, supporting the students the Maduro government calls "fascists".

Ihr, faschistische Landesverräter! - Maduros Propagandamaschine

Die Regierung Maduros versucht, die Studenten als Faschisten zu bezeichnen. Diese sind Studenten, die gegen die schreckliche Kriminalität im Lande, gegen die Mangelwirtschaft, gegen die höchste Inflation des Kontinents, gegen die unglaubliche Korruption und gegen die Militarisierung Venezuelas protestieren.

Táchira

Táchira

Am 2.2 wurde eine Studentin in San Cristobal, im westlichen Bundesstaat Táchira, sexuell angegriffen. Der Gouverneur Táchiras, José Gregorio Vielma Mora, ist ein Militär und ehemaliger Putschist, Kumpel vom verstorbenen Chávez. Die Studenten hatten sich schon ein Jahr lang über die Kriminalität in der Gegend beschwert und die Regierung hatte nichts unternommen.  Sie protestierten nun. Die Polizei nahm die Studenten fest und schickte einige von ihnen gleich zu einem Gefängnis im fernen Coro. Die Situation eskalierte. Nun sind viele Straßen in San Cristobal und in der Umgebung verbarrikadiert. Die Regierung Maduros hat mehrere leichte Panzer dahin geschickt. Ein Paar Kampfflugzeuge und Hubschrauber flogen immer wieder ganz niedrig, als wollten sie Angst einjagen.

Die Bevölkerung San Cristobal ist besonders regierungskritisch und darum sagt die Regierung ständig, die Region sei voll Faschisten. Es gibt mehrere Gründe, warum die Gegend so regierungskritisch ist. Einer von ihnen ist die Tatsache, dass Táchira seit immer enge Verbindungen zu Kolumbien hatte. Die meisten Menschen dort waren mal "im Ausland", im Gegensatz zu den meisten Armen anderswo in Venezuela, und sie konnten das Leben in ausländischen Städten - Cúcuta, Pamplona - mal erleben. Kolumbien ist kulturell nicht so anders als Venezuela und immer noch ärmer. Das Land ist aber stabiler und sicherer geworden und die Läden haben immer Milch und Hähnchen, Mehl und Eier und man muss nicht stundenlang Schlange stehen, um diese Produkte zu kaufen.

Die Protesten breiteten sich aus - nach Caracas, Maracay, Puerto Ordaz, Valencia und anderswo. 

Caracas

In Caracas wurden am Ende der Demos vom 14.2 drei Menschen - zwei Jungs und einen Paramilitär -  getötet. Der Paramilitär oder Colectivo wurde von der Regierung als Held gelobt, die anderen kaum erwähnt. Kurioserweise hatte Al Jazeera letztes Jahr ein Interview mit diesem Juancho geführt. Man kann es hier lesen. Die Regierung sagte, die Opposition seie für all diese Tote verantwortlich. Es stellte sich aber heraus, dass Polizisten und Agenten der Staatssicherheit SEBIN rechtswidrig ihre Feuerwaffen benutzten. Jonathan Rodríguez, Leibwächter vom Innenminister Rodríguez Torres, konnte, zusammen mit anderen Angehörigen der Staatssicherheit, ganz ruhig gegen die Studenten schießen. Der Mann ist nun auf der Flucht. Die anderen Beamten sind frei.
 
Der Innenminister Rodríguez ist auch ein ehemaliger Militär und Putschist, der am blutigen Angriff gegen das Präsidentenhaus im Jahr 1992 verantwortlich beteiligt war. Er war ein dicker Kumpel des verstorbenen "Comandante Eterno", wie Chávez unter seinen Anhängern jetzt genannt wird. Rodríguez ist frei und weiterhin Innenminister.

Derjenige, der jetzt im Gefängnis sitzt ist der Oppositionsführer López...weil, weil...es ist nicht klar, der venezolanische Botschafter in Kolumbien sagte aber, Leopoldo López wäre im Gefängnis "für seine Sicherheit". Wahrscheinlich will die Regierung uns alle im Gefängnis haben, damit wir Oppositionellen ganz sicher sind.

Carabobo

Nationalgarde schießt auch gegen die umliegenden Gebäude

Francisco Ameliach, auch ehemaliger Militär und Putschist, ist der Gouverneur von Carabobo, wo die drittgrößte Stadt des Landes, Valencia, liegt. Er  rief via Twitter die Paramilitärs auf, "einen Gegenangriff zu starten".

In Valencia hielten die Studenten eine Demo auf der Cedeño-Straße, vier Straßen von der Plaza Bolívar entfernt. Die regierungsnahen Paramilitärs, die fast immer auf Motorrädern unterwegs sind, griffen sie an, während die Polizei sich zurückzog, als wolle sie den Paramilitärs freien Lauf geben. Mehrere Studenten wurden erschossen. Die 23-jährige Génesis Carmona starb kurz danach - von einem Paramilitär, von einem "Revolutionär" getötet. In diesem Video kann man einige der Paras sehen. Eine Gruppe von Neugierigen hat das ganze aus einem Büro auf der nördlichen Seite der Straße aufgenommen. Die Chavistas gingen immer weiter von Westen nach Osten, während sich die Studenten gegen Norden und Osten weg liefen. Hier kann man ein neues Video sehen, diesmal von der südlichen Seite aufgenommen.

Valencia: die Chavistas schossen von Westen nach Osten, ein Mädchen wurde tödlich erschossen, mehrere Studenten wurden verwundet.

Zur Zeit gibt es mehrere Gebiete im Norden Valencias und in San Diego, wo die Studenten sich verbarrikadiert haben. In ärmeren Gebieten gibt es auch viele Oppositionellen. Sie trauen sich aber kaum, öffentlich zu protestieren. Es gibt einige Ausnahmen. In sehr armen Tocuyito hatten einige Studenten kurz vor diesem Demo protestiert und auch sie wurden angegriffen und endeten im Krankenhaus. Andere demonstrierten im Dorf Yagua und das verlief friedlicher.

Propaganda

Venezolanische Fernsehsender sind dem Staat gegenüber völlig kritiklos geworden, seitdem Globovisión von regierungsnahen Unternehmern gekauft wurde. Außerhalb einiger Viertel lesen die wenigsten Zeitungen und wenn, vorwiegend Boulevardzeitungen. Die staatlichen Fernseh- und Radiosender strahlen den ganzen Tag Propaganda aus, nach der die Oppositionellen Verräter und USA-Diener sind. Die Propaganda ist auf Gefühle voll ausgerichtet. Die Hälfte der Bevölkerung wird als "kleine Minderheit von Rechtsradikalen" bestempelt.

Die Regierung sagt, die Opposition weigert sich, ein Dialog zu führen. In Wirklichkeit haben aber Chávez, alle seine Beamten und nun Maduro jegliche offene, echte Debatte mit der Opposition abgelehnt. Die Regierung sagt ab und zu, nachdem sie die Opposition gründlich beschimpft hat, dass sie die Opposition zu bestimmten Treffen einlädt. Dabei vergewissert sich die Regierung, dass die "Diskussionen" nicht gefilmt werden, dass die Presse nur ganz kontrollierte Mitschnitte hört. Wenn die Treffen zu Ende sind, sagt die Regierung immer wieder, ein Dialog ist gescheitert.

Und so geht es weiter. Und am 22.2 gibt es neue Demos. Die Wirtschaftslage wird immer kritischer. Die Regierung wird immer brutaler.

Dies ist eine Seite von der Agencia Venezolana de Noticias (AVN). Ich habe das Muster "Fascist*" gesucht

What I think the opposition should do (I)

Venezuela is deteriorating continuously and yet

1. there is still a large part of the population that does not understand the dynamics of the economy, who still think part of the problem in Venezuela is "speculators" and "hoarding" and not the completely failed economic policies and who do not grasp how Venezuela is isolating itself from the rest of the world
2. the government, with its complete disregard of democratic principles, is carrying out an extensive brain wash plan to keep people uninformed
3.  those using the student marches to demand for an urgent change, a power change, do not say concretely how that power is going to take place and under what legal conditions given the fact we had -very dirty and contested- elections last year. There are legal procedures to be determined.

Students have the right to protest against the government for many reasons. They have the right now.

And yet: the country is still not ready for a change. We need to wait for the moment. That moment is coming soon as the economy will deteriorate further and further. But if we try to force things now, just before those who are on the threshold make out their minds, we are going to blow away our opportunity for years.

What is to be done? by psychopath Lenin: we need a better plan to go against the extreme left

We do need to be active now, but differently. The amount of time most people are ready to protest cannot be the same as in Ukraine or Egypt because we have had a different story than they did: we have been marching and protesting at least since 2002. The general public needs time to prepare for big demonstrations but we need also to prepare the path for them. 

What we need now is to work in an organised manner against the brain washing scheme. What we need to do now is to educate the population. To do that we must set up groups carrying out propaganda work in very much guerrilla style, flash mob-style but in a serious fashion, distribute fully verifiable information about how real life is outside Venezuela, about corruption in Venezuela, about democracy principles, about pluralism, about the sense of real, open debate - as opposed to "dialogue"…and we need to do that for months and months.

And then and only when the economic situation is worse than it is already now – when it gets even worse – we will manage to get more people to join.

When we do that we would need to have very clear demands.

I will be more concrete on a coming post.

Today's marches in Venezuela

Today a series of  marches are planned in Venezuela. On one side, most of the students and oppositions will take part. On the other, it's Officialdom. Several students have been detained during the last few days for protesting against the government's policies on crime, the economy and the press. Critical newspapers are running out of paper and print paper is imported in Venezuela. 

The state media is already saying opposition leader López is organising violent marches.

The Tupamaros, a group of "left" extremists who are actually armed paramilitary units, will support officialdom in its attacks against the students' marches. 

These marches will take place all over Venezuela.

The government has already ordered the media in different cities not to inform about the opposition's events.

You can read in Spanish here the statement produced by CONATEL, the state authority controlling the media. It says basically that those media outlets informing about "acts that promote violence" would be in real trouble. There is a big banner in front of CONATEL stating "Socializando Las Comunicaciones". In reality that's not really making media more social. It is making them "socialist" in the sense the Castro brothers want.

We will have a tense day today.

I for one think the opposition should focus on creating education networks to inform Venezuelans about what life is really outside the country, about what debates and pluralism mean and how the real economy works.

The economic situation in Venezuela is quickly deteriorating. That's why I consider we should be extremely careful now and avoid getting involved in direct confrontation with the regime. Time will come. We firstly need to fight the brain washing taking place in Venezuela. That should be the absolute focus.

Buying friendship in Latin America

Many have written about this before: Maduro is having a difficult time trying to pacify people, he doesn't have the charisma the caudillo Chávez had, he can't speak and so on.

The man recently met in Caracas with the representatives of Petrocaribe, to "strengthen alliances". Petrocaribe is basically an organisation whereby poor Caribbean countries receive cheap oil from the Venezuelan government for political support. You won't see Costa Rica in that club. What came from that meeting were more requests for more cheap oil, what certainly also took place was a series of meetings from Venezuelan Boligarcs to request absolute political support for the Venezuelan government.

Now, Maduro said he was going on a tour through Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay to "look for food". He said the shortages in Venezuela are part of sabotage from those wanting to stop the transition to socialism.

What is going to happen is this: Maduro will see the presidents of Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina and he will personally assure them that the Venezuelan state will spend more money on food imports from those countries. That will rejoice a few in the South. He will expect in return a stronger political support and pressure from those countries against any politicians in South America who would dare support Venezuelans claiming for a real audit of the elections or who would in any way criticise the growing repression in Venezuela.

When Maduro accused the former president of Colombia, Alejandro Uribe, of conniving with the Venezuelan opposition to kill him, Colombia's current president and former Uribe protegé Santos remained rather quite. Only after much national pressure was Santos and his foreign minister compelled to say something about this. The reason for such passivity is clear: money. Colombia has a nice trade surplus with Venezuela and Santos does not want to take the country back to the time when Chávez drastically reduced imports from that country.Colombians remember that time just a couple of years ago and it was harsh for them.

Brazil left and right is happy with Venezuela's situation right now

Venezuela has currently a trade deficit with every South American country that counts. It can only keep its positive trade surplus thanks to the huge surplus it has with the United States of America. Even its favourable trade balance with China wouldn't be enough: Chávez got Venezuela into a lot of debt with that country to finance several elections, specially the one in 2012 and the Chinese are becoming more cautious.

Venezuela's currency - under a fixed exchange rate - has been highly overvalued for many years and yet the timid devaluation implemented by the government in February was meaningful enough for Colombians, Uruguayans and many others to get the jitters. And the reason is simple: Venezuela is just the easy pray no one wants to lose.

Maduro tried to revive the excitement old US naggers had with Chávez when he declared Obama was the chief of devils. Obama had very politely expressed his concerns for the state of democracy in Venezuela but that was enough for former AD-politician, former Causa-R politician and current government honcho Aristóbulo Istúriz to say - for the public opinion - that "Venezuela se respeta".

As I always say, oil prices are the Alpha and Omega of Venezuela's politics. And yet I don't want to jump the gun and see long-term patterns in oil prices. People keep doing that and they keep shooting themselves in the foot. Still, we can see prices seem to have stabilized around 100 dollars a barrel and that is not enough for the overtly corrupt Chavista government: Venezuela would need steadily rising prices just to avert a recession.

The Venezuelan opposition will be persecuted more fiercely now. But so far, it has been learning a bit - finally. If it can take the next step, there are chances in the middle term for a real change. To do that it needs to work on establishing a national network of information vectors around the country to tell people about the economic reality and basic democratic principles so foreign to petro-feudal Venezuela. It's about teaching people what an actual debate between parliamentarians or thinkers or just average people means in a democratic country. It's about teaching what sustainable development is - not just about planting trees but about economic and social sustainability. It's about what "decentralization" should be - not power to a local instead of a national caudillo but local decision making together with by direct accountability. The opposition also has to make clear Madurismo is destroying Venezuela's productive sector, that Venezuelan private producers are not inherently evil, as the government wants to make believe, and just need a transparent environment where the rule of law and fair play apply.

The opposition also needs to keep in touch with the outside world and let it be known that those that become friends with the current Venezuelan government and remain silent to human rights violations will soon pay with international scorn and later with economic losses.

More sources:
Colombian exports
1
2
Brazil
3

Debatte der Opposition

Ich fange spät an.
Siehe hier

1:45 Pérez: Investitionen, Investitionen

1:46 Medina: hat keine Ahnung...oder doch: Strassenbau, Autobahnen ausbauen...und Stadien???

1:47 Machado kennt unsere Strassen. Wer tut was? fragt sie. Internationale Finanzierung kann nötig sein. Machado wird internationale Abkommen anerkennen, solange sie koscher sind.

Scheissalarm, um Zeitfrist anzudeuten.

1:50 López will auch Konzessionen.

Scheissalarm. Ist dies ein Videospiel oder eine Debatte?
Journalist kann sich nicht ausdrücken.

1:51 López wiederholt: Sicherheit und dann Infrastruktur. Er will eine Million Jobs in Tourismus...nur in Hotels. Hallo?

1:53 Arrias will Enteignungen auf dem Land rückgängig machen und vor allem seine Hazienda zurück.

1:54: Pérez: Zulia ist die Hauptstadt der Karibik. Er hat 10000 Stimmen verloren.

1:59: Medina will katholisches Fe-y-Alegría-System als Mass aller Dinge in der Bildung in Venezuela.

2:00: De Villar is Chávez-Anhänger, sagt, es gibt keine Analphabeten mehr in Venezuela. Medina sagt die Wahrheit.

2:03: Machado will Eigentum garantieren.

2:03: María Inés Delgado hat eine schöne Halskette.

2:05: López will die besten Beamten, nicht die treuesten.

2:06: Der Journalist De Villar ist ein Chávez-Anhänger.

2:07:  Capriles wieder über Ausbildung, muss aber konkreter sein. Sprich über die PISA-Studie! Schule bauen, ja, aber mehr!

2:10: Man will wisssen, ob Capriles die Abschlüsse der Bildungsprogramme der Chávez-Regierung anerkennen würde. Er redet, die Zeit ist aber um.

2:13: Medina will Erdölproduktion erhöhen und auch "industrialisieren".

2:13: Journalistin behauptet, die Erdölpreise sind so hoch, weil wir weniger produzieren. Falsch: wir produzieren weniger, weil PDVSA zugrunde geht.

2:15: Machedo sagt zum ersten Mal, dass Erdöl in 50 Jahren ersetzt werden kann und dass man das Geld investieren muss. Sie will auch, dass Venezolaner in Erdölproduktion privat investieren.

Journalisten von Panorama sind "rojos-rojitos".

2:22 Capriles sagt, man muss Einkommensquellen anderswo suchen, nicht nur Erdöl.

2:22: Die Chávez-Journalisten haben eine Fixierung mit den internationalen Abkommen.

Machado will kein Referendum, um das Abtreibungsgesetz zu gestalten. Sie will ein öffentlich Gespräch, ist persönlich für Abtreibungen bei Vergewaltigungen, Gesundheitsproblemen, usw.

2:24: Zuschauerin behauptet wieder, die hohen Erdölpreise haben mit der "Kontrolle der Produktion in Venezuela" zu tun. Pérez geht herum. Leider sagt er nicht, was man ansprechen muss: dass die venezolanische Regierung zur Zeit mit den hohen Erdölpreisen nichts zu tun hat.

2:35: Capriles will das öffentliche Gesundheitssystem so gut machen, dass man nicht unbedingt zu den privaten Kliniken gehen muss. Gut.

2:40: Medina will höhere Gehälter für Ärzte und Krankenpfleger. Er kennt die Lage.

Siehe weiter hier.

2:46: Mensch, wird jemand das Wort "Pluralismus" sagen? Das schreckt Chávez ab!

2:53: Medina sagt, Wahlbetrug ist schon programmiert.

2:55: Der älteste Kandidat sagt, er ist die Chance der Jugend.

Chávez and dialogue

A few hours after Chávez came back to power 13 of April 2002, after the Carmona coup, he declared a call for dialogue and reconciliation. The mood remained like that for some days, while he recovered and felt back in power.

Chávez has repeatedly said after that he does not want to have a dialogue "with the bourgeoisie", which is basically anyone who opposes him. He has declared there is no other project, no other solution, no other anything than his self-proclaimed revolution.

And yesterday, forced to talk in front of people who do not follow him and do not applaud to every whim of his, he declared to want to have a dialogue.

We can be sure of one thing: Chávez is not honest. My guess is the 1992-coupster will get into tantrum mood in 2 weeks time at the latest.

Still, we have to challenge him to make good his promise. That is what the alternative parties are doing now.

Julio Borges declared "we are taking Chávez's word and we will remind him every day about keeping the dialogue going"

Borges also said the Mesa de la Unidad was proposing a schedule for the Chávez's ministers to answer questions on the National Assembly. This will be fun. I wonder if the PSUV honchos will accept an open debate or just limit themselves to a monologue.

Keep tuned.

Was ist denn das in Venezuela, wenn nicht eine Militärjunta?

updated












Rangel Silva
























Der seit 1998 amtierende Caudillo


Die Drohungen

General Henry Rangel Silva ist einer der wichtigsten Militären in Venezuela. Er ist auch jemand, der vom Finanzministerium der Vereinigten Staaten als FARC-Unterstützer und "drug kingpin" eingestufft wurde. Dementsprechend gibt es ein Haftbefehl gegen ihn. Er ist auch Leiter des venezolanischen Nachrichtendienstes. Gestern hat er wieder was ganz typisches für die Rhewolucionäre gesagt. Während eines Interviews mit der Últimas Noticias-Zeitung, behauptete Rangel Silva folgendes:

"Die Streitkräften haben keine halbgebackene Treue, sondern sind völlig den Menschen, einem Lebensprojekt und einem einzigen Oberbefehlshaber treu. Wir sind mit diesem Nationalprojekt verheiratet (sic)." "Im Fall einer hypothetischen Regierung der Opposition im Jahre 2012 und falls man den Militärsektor abbauen wollte, würden die Militärkräften und das Volk reagieren".

"Die Angriffe sind im Programm der Opposition. Die Militärkräften sind historisch gesehen benutzt worden, um Regierungen zu stürzen...die Hypothese ist schwer, aber [wenn sie an die Macht kämen], würden sie das Land verkaufen. Das werden weder die Bevölkerung noch die Streitkräften noch vor allem das Volk (sic) akzeptieren". Wahrscheinlich auch nicht die kubanische Diktatur, Lukaschenko, die Chinesen oder die russischen Waffenexporteure.

Venezuela ist seit 1999 von einem ehemaligen Putschist regiert. Er wurde demokratisch gewählt - wie viele anderen vor ihm - und hatte lange Zeit aufgrund des grössten Erdölbooms in Jahrzehnten die Mehrheit hinter sich. Dieser Putschist hatte 1992 einen blutigen Putschversuch gegen eine zwar korrupte aber demokratisch gewählte Regierung organisiert. Er sagte damals, sein Putsch sei gerechtfertigt, weil 3 Jahre davor der frei gewählte Präsident einen Militär- und Polizeieinsatz gegen Demonstranten angeordnet hatte und die Polizei und Militärs dabei Leute erschossen haben. Dass ein Hauptanteil derjenigen, die erschossen haben, Militärs waren, hat der Putschist nicht erwähnt. Er hat auch nicht erwähnt, dass jene Regierung sowieso nur noch ein paar Jahre Amtszeit vor sich hatte, denn damals durften Präsidenten nicht unmittelbar nach ihrer Periode wieder zur Wahl stehen. Seit 2009 gibt es in Venezuela ein Präsidentialsystem ohne Amtzeitbegrenzung, wie nur noch in Vietnam, Guyana und Weissrussland.

Die Militärkaste

Man sieht hier eine Karte mit den Bundesstaaten Venezuelas. Die Bundesstaaten, die jetzt von Militärs regiert werden, sind dunkelgrün. Die Bundesstaaten, die von Brüdern oder Töchtern von Militärs regiert werden, Barinas und Falcón, sind hellgrün. Es gibt drei Staaten, über deren gegenwärtigen Gouverneure ich gar keine Biographien finden konnte: Guárico, Trujillo und Sucre. Anzóategui -mit einem grünen G- wird von einem Zivilist regiert, der aber jahrelang während der demokratischen Periode vor 1998 bei der Guerrilla tätig war. Die Bundesstaaten in Gelb werden von der Opposition regiert, auch wenn der Caudillo fast alle Befugnisse der Bundesstaaten seit den 2008-Wahlen zu sich gerissen hat. Der Bundesstaat Lara hat eine besondere Stellung: der Gouverneur, Falcón, war auch ein Militär, auch ein Chávez-Mann, er ist aber seit 2009 im Klintsch mit dem Caudillo. Falcón sagte, er sei gegen die intolerante Art und Weise, wie die Nationalregierung alles lösen wollte.

Die Drogen

Chávez sagt nun, Kolumbiens neuer Präsident, Santos sei sein "neuer bester Freund". Die Kolumbianer werden jetzt Geschäftsleute nach Venezuela schicken, um wieder den Absatz ihrer Produkte zu sichern. Venezuela importiert vieles aus Kolumbien - von Fleisch und Klopapier bis zu Textilien-. Venezuela exportiert aber fast nur Erdöl, Gas und Elektrizität. Es gibt einen grossen Handelsbilanzüberschuss für Kolumbien und er wird wieder grösser werden. Dafür erwartet Chávez aber, dass die kolumbianische Regierung Makled nach Venezuela schickt. Makled ist ein Venezolaner libanesischer Herkunft, der sowohl von der venezolanischen Regierung wie auch von der US-Amerikanischen Justiz wegen Drogenhandeln gesucht und von den Kolumbianern festgenommen wurde. Wie Juan in Caracas Chronicles erzählte, hat Makled schon mehrmals behauptet, er kann Beweise für die Beziehungen der Militärs in Venezuela mit der FARC und mit dem Drogenhändlern vorlegen. Makled hat schon ganz konkrete Namen venezolanischer Militärs erwähnt. Früher hatte er viel Geld mit Geschäften gemacht, die erst durch seine Zusammenarbeit mit der Regierung möglicht waren.

Mapping voters and opportunities

First: I know, the charts suck, but I did them on a rush. The important thing is to see the general pattern. You can see how people voted in several key municipios of Carabobo in 2009's referendum. On the Y axis you see number of votes. On the X axis you see a blurry series of all voting centres for that centre. What is interesting is to see the general level of the Sí, the NO and the abstention. The Sí went to Chavismo, the NO to the opposition.

San Diego is represented by the the first chart. San Diego is rather middle class with some slums. There are no nice villas, few rich, most people upgraded social houses. There are lots of university graduates. The have a good mayor, Enzio Scarano. Most Chavistas are contratistas for the national government or very poor squatters who came from Southern Valencia, from the Llanos or from even poorer American countries.

The second chart shows a Northern parish withing the huge Valencia municipality. Most people there are middle to upper middle class.

The next chart shows Miguel Pena, a huge parish that is most of Southern Valencia. It is one of the most dangerous places in America. Most people are poor.

The Naguanagua municipality is mostly anti-Chávez. It is rather middle class, but with quite some variance: a few posh areas and some slums. The mayor is the governor's cousin, part of the Salas-Feo clan. You see some areas where the regime is stronger. They are mostly the slums.

Next you see municipio Libertador (not to mix up with Libertador in Caracas), a very poor region with a horrible prison (Tocuyito) and one of the biggest landfills in Venezuela, an ecologic disaster only people in town feel.

The Electoral Council joined Libertador with Miguel Pena and a couple of minor regions in order to produce one of the most shameless examples of gerrymandering in Venezuela.

Los Guayos is a poor municipality that once was a poor but beautiful town and is now a dirty, dangerous place, chock-a-block with slums from people arriving from everywhere in Venezuela, from Ecuador, Peru and Colombia.

Diego Ibarra is a municipality in the Northwest of Carabobo. It is one of the most pro-Chávez regions.

And the more Chavista region in Carabobo is the municipio Juan José Mora, which is a municipality with one of the highest amount of descendants from slaves is. Several of PDVSA's most important facilities (like El Palito Refinery and petrochemical plants) are there.



Think about this: abstention. Abstention is higher in regions the military regime wants to use to consolidate power. If the alternative forces cared, if they were intelligent, they would invest much more time there.

Leopoldo López has been there. El Pollo (Carabobo's governor) is starting to go there (finally). What about the others? When in the last years has "national leader" of Primero Justicia, Borges, been there? When has the UNT leader gone to Carabobo's poor regions?

We need to focus on proposing an alternative Venezuela to the people there. We need to put forward a project for sustainable development to them.

Hals abschneiden und "Originalität"

Juan und Francisco haben in ihrem Blog über ein paar Fernsehwerbungen geschrieben. Hier einige Bemerkungen von mir für die Deutschsprachigen.

Zuerst könnt Ihr eine Werbung des Chávez-Regimes sehen. Die Sprecher sind bekannte Regierungsbonzen, wie Istúriz (ehemaliger AD-Politiker, ehemaliger Causa-R Politiker und seit langem Chávez-Politiker) und jetzige Táchira-Abgeordnete für Chávez, Iris Varela.

"Was wollen sie"?
"Die Opposition?"
"Sie haben das aber schon gesagt!"
"Dass sie die Gesetze zerstören werden" (sic)
"Dass sie Chávez in Schwierigkeiten bringen werden"
"Nein, nein, dafür würden sie das Volk beseitigen müssen!"
"Das Volk ist mit Chávez, die Opposition sitzt in der Klemme"
"So viel Gewalt" [ja, ohne Scheisse, das hat er gesagt]
"Streiken, Gringos" [do you see the link? don't you see the link?]
"Putsch" [von wegen] "Terrorismus"
"Und die Jugendliche?"

"Welche?" Eine Opposition ohne Jugendliche? (!!) Ohne Inklusion? Ohne Plan für das Land?"

Und ganz am Ende:

"Weisst Du was? -Zeichen für Hals abschneiden - Sie sind tot" (bzw keine Chance haben, aber mehr als zweideutig)

"Wähl PSUV"

Und die Opposition adaptiert eine Werbung der US-Amerikaner.

In beiden Werbungen wird zumindest einmal v als /v/ ausgesprochen, eine häufige Hyperkorrektur in Venezuela.

Amazing Venezuela: the case of Areo

Cedeño Municipality, Monagas State, on the Eastern Llanos of Venezuela

Uraco is the only municipality where the opposition has an alcalde (even if with a largely emasculated government after Chávez modified the competences for municipalities and states)

In 2008 in Areo, a village in the Northwest of Monagas state, a 135-year old lady called Lareyah de Cases Caden went to vote in the regional elections. In early 2009, she went back to vote in the new referendum where Chávez proposed the last thing people rejected in 2007 and he couldn't pass through special laws after that. Mrs de Cases has been voting since the 2004 referendum, according to registries the opposition could get from the National Electoral Commission. Before 2004 she wasn't politically active. We can fairly say Chavismo invigorated her. Mrs de Cases was a 27-year old woman during the Second Boer War and the Paris Exposition Universelle. She was a 72 year old lady when World War II came to an end. She became an 100-year-old lady when the Yom Kippur War took place. As I said in a previous post, Venezuela's rate of centenaries per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the National Electoral Commission, is 4 times higher than Japan's. I wonder if Mrs Lareyah de Cases's health has something to do with the waters of the Areo River or with the kind of food she eats. The Areo region was home to Carib Indians and perhaps there is something in the genes or habits we got from them that gives us that little bit of extra life and energy.





Votes in the 2009 referendum, parish Areo







**

The school where de Cases went to give her vote is the Escuela Básica Morita. Results for the 2009 referendum show that every one of the 550 registered voters at the Morita school . Everyone. Chávez's proposal was to introduce indefinite re-election for elected functionaries, which now allows a president in a strongly presidential, not a parliamentary system, to run for re-elections indefinitely. The proposal got a rather strong support at that school. Of the 550 voters, 547 voted for it. Only one opposed it and 2 voted null, even if that is not shown at the CNE site since 2009 (it does not show votes abroad since 2007).

We have no actas because the opposition did not manage to get witnesses for that school as for any other in many other areas there, but then: who is going to blow against the wind? Who is going to put in doubt the most modern and reliable electoral system in human history?

***

Areo is a parish part of the Cedeño Municipality. The mayor of Cedeño is the brother of the state governor, José Gregorio Briceño, a former member of the 4th Republic AD party who conveniently noticed the winds of "change" and switched to the PSUV and has been governor of the state since 2004. Mr Briceño is a lawyer from the private Santa María University, just like Cilia Flores. I still remember when I used to read in newspapers job ads for lawyers where employers warned: "Santa María lawyers please, do not apply".

The state is home to such luminaries as entrepreneur and military man Diosdado Cabello, one of the key coup mongers of November 1992 and probably one of Chávez's 5 closest men. Cabello is one of the 3 men president Chávez follows in Twitter. He is also key candidate for the National Assembly for the Monagas state.

A couple of months ago, Mr Briceño (the governor, not the mayor) visited Areo to inaugurate a new school for 400 pupils. I am happy the people of the area got that school, as I know a lot of children in many areas of Venezuela are in over-crowded schools, sometimes having classes under the skies. I do not know what kind of opposition there is in the region. I would suspect the guys there are rather clueless AD-COPEI-supporters who thought things could go on like they were before and, in opposition to the ones from the government, have no money for pork and much less for schools.

The governor and his family are strong in the state, but there is a certain cloud over their power. Since 2007 about 52 people have been killed by the state police of Monagas and most of the cases are very unclear and have to do with cocaine trade. If you speak Spanish, watch this interview of former mayor of the Aguasay municipalty and now candidate for the circuit where Areo and other municipalities are.

Monagas State is called after the Monagas family, who were military caudillos and presidents of Venezuela in the second half of the XIX century. Oil and drugs have changed the shape of the state forever. More on that in another post.


Hat tip to Amieres for the electoral details








Probably the oldest person on Earth

Transparency for Venezuela in pictures

I keep writing about ideas for improving Venezuela even if I know Venezuela is currently under a military autocracy and there is little room for any proposal from pluralistic Venezuela to be implemented. I still think we need to talk about what we can do once the military regime is gone.

A few months ago a German IT magazine, Ct', had an article about sites promoting transparency in different countries. One of those I liked the most was a tiny British site called Where Does My Money Go? If you have a minute, take a look, specially check out the dashboard and the way regions and spending fields can be compared. The site is a taster. I can think of a dozen other items they could add there to go deeper into who is spending what in the government, possibly with links to the public tenders and companies involved in any project with a budget over a certain threshold (say, the equivalent to €5000). The site is maintained by the Open Knowledge Foundation.

Right now the Venezuelan government is one of the least transparent. We just get contradictory pieces of information here and there, we do know the Venezuelan so-called revolution spends in submarines, Kalashnikovs and tanks galore as well as in Chávez's travels and dresses. Although the self-proclaimed "socialist" but actually just military regime says it spends a lot in "education", schools are overcrowded and falling apart and parents still have to pay an average worker's monthly salary to get the books and textbooks for two children..whereas in the EU and USA those things are usually provided by the state.

It is time for the opposition to go out and propose ideas on transparency and spending...but not in Caracas or Northern Valencia, not on just on Internet, but in the streets of Maturín and El Tigre, Southern Valencia and San Carlos, Calabozo Pedernales.

An Iranian woman, stoning and Venezuela

For some months the world has heard about Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, a 43-year old woman of the Azeri-speaking minority accused by the Iranian regime of adultery and sentenced to death by stoning. She was first sentenced to whipping in 2006 for "illicit relationship" with two men after the death of her husband and went through the punishment soon afterwards. She then was sent again to trail during the process of the men involved in the killing of her husband. She said she had been tortured for the confession and that she does not speak Farsi. She was going to be executed by stoning in July 2010 but the campaign carried out by one of her children stopped the execution for a time. Her initial lawyer went into hiding and is now a refugee in Norway. Lula da Silva, a friend of Akhmadinejad, asked him to grant Ms Ashtiani assylum, but the Iranian rejected the plea. They said da Silva did not know the case well.

Last week The Guardian managed to get an interview through a middle person and there Ms Ashtiani said the Iranian regime is constructing new charges to pave the way for her execution.


Yesterday the state channel transmitted a broadcast where Ashtiani herself reads out, with trembling voice, a "confession". The way the confession took place makes people believe it was product of torture, a horribly common practice in Iran. International organizations as Amnesty International fear the imminent execution of Ms Ashtiani. As a Venezuelan I am profoundly shocked. Opposition parties and NGOs protested against the imminent execution of Ashtiani in front of the Iranian embassy. I suppose Chávez et alia will dismiss this all as politics and he will say he does not intervene in other nation's affairs. I would tell him: call it as you want, but do something. Please, intercede for this woman's life. We are talking about the most basic human rights. If you want to read more about human rights in Iran, you can take a look at Amnesty's reports here.