Thursday 21 January 2010

Shameless gerrymandering, part II

UPDATED

How to steal votes and destroy democracy








I updated the maps according to the official sources as seen here (electoral districts).
The gerrymandering is worse than I thought in some regions. In others, like Miranda, things don't change much. As most opposition leaders and the national media are concentrated in Miranda and they think only on what they see, little interest will be spent to the rest of Venezuela.

I used the votes of the 2008 elections for governor that the government has on its site. Salas Feo (opposition) was the candidate for the opposition and Mario Silva (regime) for the regime.

If people voted in the same way for the opposition and we had the electoral districts we had until last year, you would see this:







6 deputies, we would get 4 out of 6











Now, after Tibisay and her accomplices carried out heavy gerrymandering, the regime would get the following (if people vote as they did in 2008):











7 nominal deputies, the regime would get 6, the opposition 1













Same amount of votes for each. That is gerrymandering and that is what the Venezuelan regime is doing. I suppose the Spanish government does not want to say anything about it...too many businesses are in peril.

Here you have the approximate votes as given for the governor in 2008. The numbers left and right of brackets represent the thousands of voters for officialdom and main opposition. As we said: allthough the total for the opposition is higher, this gerrymandering would enable the regime to win 6 out of 7 deputies:



















What is the vice-president of the European Parliament and PSOE politician saying now?


Below you have the votes for the 2008 election of governor in my region.


Votes 2008 government opposition Total mil/opo deputies
Libertador 30142 22388

Miguel Pena 60699 48147

Negro Primero 2212 302

Rafael Urdaneta 30931 34839

Santa Rosa 14563 13528


138547 119204 257751 3





Naguanagua 21815 35466

Candelaria 6323 8121

Catedral 928 1408

El Socorro 856 2135

San Blas 4054 8197

San José 7667 61972

San Diego 9145 24369


50788 141668 192456 1





Carlos Arvelo 28955 15544

Los Guayos 26524 19382


55479 34926 90405 1





Bejuma 8603 9323

Miranda 6120 3681

Montalbán 4760 4768

Puerto Cabello 39954 31959

Juan José Mora 16251 8678


75688 58409 134097 1





Diego Ibarra 18941 12805

Guacara 31215 30759

San Joaquín 11292 9749


61448 53313 114761 1
















Before we had this



government opposition total deputies won
Miguel Pena 60699 48147

Negro Primero 2212 302

Rafael Urdaneta 30931 34839

Santa Rosa 14563 13528

Candelaria 6323 8121

Catedral 928 1408

El Socorro 856 2135

San Blas 4054 8197

San José 7667 61972


128233 178649 306882 2
Carlos Arvelo 28955 15544

Los Guayos 26524 19382


55479 34926 90405 1
Bejuma 8603 9323

Miranda 6120 3681

Libertador 30142 22388

Montalbán 4760 4768


49625 40160 89785 1
Naguanagua 21815 35466

Libertador 30142 22388


51957 57854 109811 2
Puerto Cabello 39954 31959

Juan José Mora 16251 8678


56205 40637 96842 1
Diego Ibarra 18941 12805

Guacara 31215 30759

San Joaquín 11292 9749

San Diego 9145 24369


70593 77682 148275 2



Ps. thanks to the people of Súmate (news in Spanish) and Esdata for providing such valuable data.

4 comments:

  1. hola Kepler,

    Now you scare the hell out of me!

    I know Esdata and they are very accurate with data.
    When this is really the outcome (I do not doubt your skills for figuring this out) then the Venezuelan people are screwed.

    But.... I also think that when the situation as it is now, in Venezuela, Chavez loses more and more votes.
    Then it is possible that the system would work against Chavez.

    I know that what you did is a lot of work. But.... what would happen when there is a chavista area, that will vote for the opposition?
    Not that I believe in miracles anymore.

    The question is what will and can the opposition do! I understand that this system will be approved in 72 hours.

    After approving there is for the Venezuela only one way left, to get out of this dictatorship.

    But this will cost a lot of blood.

    This whole thing is more then horror.

    saludos
    Alpha

    ReplyDelete
  2. Alpha,
    I simply added the numbers for those who voted for Silva and those for Salas according to the cne site.
    I will put up all the data as excell or just paste it as table this evening (anyone can also get it from the links I added).

    The registered voters are there for all to see. Many in the opposition top are waiting for a miracle, as usual.

    This has to happen: the
    people in Miguel Pena-Libertador (area in the pale-orange-skin shade) have to vote for oppo. The ratio in 2008 was 138 for chavismo against 119 now.
    3 issues: 1) Salas could be doing a better job there, he isn't and he is dividing the opposition by thinking he is the royalty with his family party, 2) chavismo is likely to distribute massively all kinds of gadgets, food, etc to guarantee their win there and 3) the opposition hasn't put its act together with witnesses, they all want to be in Naguanagua-Prebo-Trigal,
    they are underrepresented in Miguel Pena and Libertador and other regions

    ReplyDelete
  3. we are going to get gang-banged in that election and for the first time ever the whole cheating process for the election is out there in the open, in plain sight, clear as day, yet nobody says a word about it.

    A note here in the paper, an interview there in globo but there is no sense of real alarm about it, no protest, no organisation till SURPRISE! you lose the thing and cry bloody murder.

    ...y despues dicen que guerra avisada no mata soldados

    :(

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi. I am getting reports from Miranda. It seems the situation there is more balanced, things don't change that much. Probably chavismo recognize it is better to cheat where people don't notice "so much".
    I wonder what on Earth the people in my region are doing apart.
    Sumate and esdata are alarmened, but our politicos? Bien, gracias.

    ReplyDelete

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