Friday, 1 January 2010

You, Venezuela and the wisdom of crowds

A lot has been written about the real power of the Wisdom of the Crowds. I wil try to see if we can work together to find out if it helps in this case.

Last month I started up a little poll asking readers to guess when Chávez would cease to be the head of state of Venezuela. Every month from now on I will keep having the poll and after the second month I will transform all results into a line chart and I will add a pie chart with that month's figures.

Here we have the first results (no line chart yet). It will start to become interesting from this month onwards. Please, feel free to find vote every month. It only takes a couple of seconds. There were 47 answers. 10 persons thought Chávez will be out before the end of 2011, 11 thought it would be between 2012 and 2013, 14 between 2014 and 2020, 4 thought later and 8 do not know.

I also add here another chart to show you the gender distribution for our readers. I started that poll much later, so there are fewer respondents. Still, I think the proportion would not change much in the next months: there are less females than males reading the blog, 3 for every 4. That reflects the usual Internet usage differences, but I do expect and hope the differences to dicrease on the middle to long term.

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