Showing posts with label basics about Venezuela. Show all posts
Showing posts with label basics about Venezuela. Show all posts

Thursday, 9 January 2014

Venezuela's wonderful tourism in the times of the civic-military "revolution"


This chart shows the evolution across time of the amount of foreign tourists to American countries outside North America and huge Argentina and Brazil. Apart from a group of hardly known islands, you have them all: from Aruba, Colombia and Peru to Venezuela. I got the data from the World Bank.

The red dotted line at the bottom represents Venezuela. 

Some things you can spot right away:

  1. Venezuela receives less foreign tourists now than in 1997, but has basically got the same amount of tourists
  2. Cuba had as many foreign visitors as Venezuela in 1998 whereas now it has more than 5 times the tourists Venezuela gets. A similar case goes for Guatemala, Costa Rican, Ecuador and other countries.
  3. Even El Salvador, formerly described by someone I knew as Central America's Armpit - surpassed Venezuela
  4. The same goes for Honduras, in spite of its also horrible murder rates
  5. Aruba, a tiny tiny little island off the coast of Venezuela with fewer beaches than those we have in just a fraction of the Paraguana region, has almost twice as many tourists as Venezuela from Guajira up to Guyana.
  6. Few countries get less visitors than Venezuela: a few tiny islands that can hardly receive more tourists, natural-disaster-ravaged, extremely poor Haiti and the tiny group of Guyana and Suriname.

Venezuela has never received many tourists because 1) the country has been very dependent on oil, 2) it has been rather expensive and 3) the authorities have never ever developed infrastructure. 

I remember having visited the ministry of tourism in the early nineties to find out what the hell they were doing. Apparently, their main concern was to publish posters of how beautiful Venezuela was and producing some examinations for tourist guides. 

Now, in the year 2014, we haven't got proper tourist offices or the like just yet. We get posters of the "Comandante Eterno" saluting foreign tourists when they arrive. Things have got grimmer and grimmer. Other bloggers have written about the case of former Miss Venezuela, Miss Spears, who was recently murdered, together with her husband and in front of their little child, while on a tourist visit to her home country. She died in similarly horrible circumstances as many others that same day. The difference was that she was a well-known figure who was currently living abroad and came to Venezuela to promote its tourism. 
This doesn't count if you don't have the people to take care of tourists or to protect the environment

Venezuela's murder rate went from 19 murders per 100 000 inhabitants in 1999, when Chávez started to rule, to 34 in 2002 to 45+ to 70 now, depending on what statistics you want to believe (the government stopped sending murder numbers to United Nations in 2002).
Nope, this doesn't count if you don't have the people to take care of tourists or to protect the environment

There are simply more tourists everywhere in the year 2014 than 15 years ago. Not only are there more people but the middle class has grown almost everywhere in emerging markets and there are more flights. In spite of that, Venezuela's at the bottom and still the "minister of the Popular Power for Tourism" - a relative of yet another left-winged military man- has the chutzpah to brag about how he is promoting tourism.


This doesn't count either while we are polluting it as few do it in the Caribbean and you can get robbed more often while enjoying it because our government is simply incompetent (and now I will be accuse by the government of being the cause of so few tourists: a traitor of the Vaterland for writing this)








Friday, 28 October 2011

Shame on Venezuelans: women getting killed

Spain has been very openly discussing about violence against women for many years now. There have been many lots of discussions, marches and new laws. There have been films focused on this terrible topic and newspapers treat this subject on a permanent basis. There is a sense of urgency and there is reason for that: 51 women have been murdered in Spain by partners or relatives this year. Spain has 48 million inhabitants.

And what about Venezuela? Well: At least 501 women have been murdered by their partners or close relatives in Venezuela in the first nine months of this year. Venezuela has 16 million less people than Spain.
In Venezuela women are 15 times more likely than in Spain to get murdered by the people closest to them. If machismo and particularly violence against women is a serious problem in Spain, it is a national tragedy  and a complete shame for Venezuela.

Even poorer countries in Spanish America, like the Dominican Republic, seem to be taking the issue more seriously than Venezuela. My country? It spends its time obsessed with Beauty Contests.

Venezuela has the highest murder rate of South America, by far. Still, this is part of a bigger problem: violence in general, widespread psychotic behaviour, repression. Late psychiatrist and writer Francisco Herrera Luque often discussed about certain psychotic traits in Venezuelans as part of their historical and genetic heritage: a nation particularly born from rape and myth. His hypothesis was highly controversial and yet I ask myself: isn't my country particularly sick? What's going on? Why do people keep such a terrible silence regarding this problem? Why don't politicians have the balls to speak up and speak out about this issue?

I am so sorry.




In the Dominican Republic they discuss about it

Saturday, 30 January 2010

The Ones In Power






UPDATED

















This is a little mindmap representing some of the top guys around Hugo of Sabaneta, a few details about them and some relationships they have with some figures.

Vicente is too old to become too much of a public figure or a possible successor to Hugo, but he still pulls a lot of political and economic strings. Diosdado is, apart from Hugo, the most agressive, even if Aristóbulo is becoming more so. Aristóbulo seems like the "less unkosher" of them all (the one with less links to the wealthiest), as far as I know. He was an active politician of the IV Republic, though.

If you have more details, please, let me know, preferably with references.



















Here the first update of the poll about when readers think Hugo will cease to be Venezuela's head of state. This is far from scientific and there may be readers who tip on what they think and others on what they want. Still, I think we can get something interesting out of this.

There were more readers answering this time.

In general:

  • there were more readers answering
  • the percentage of those who think Hugo will leave office after 2020 has increased meaningfully (8.5% to 23.1%)
  • the amount of people who think Hugo will stop being president of Venezuela this or next year has increased very lightly (21% to 24.6%)
  • last time there were 65 respondents (hopefully we will have more this month)
I am curious about how numbers will develop this month.
So, please, readers: when you are ready, just give your gut feeling about how long you think the Líder Supremo will be president of the country.

Wednesday, 6 January 2010

Venezuela's military infatuation

Chávez riding behind Bolívar (this is no photoshop, picture comes from a governmental office)






















José Tadeo Monagas



















José Antonio Páez













I was born in a Venezuela economists used to call "Venezuela saudita", a third world country awashed in petrodollars. It was a democracy, even if it was a highly dysfunctional one. Some areas looked like other poor areas of America, some little places like Africa and others like Europe and all this in a distinctly tropical and subtropical nature. Back then and well into the years of increasing economic decline in the late eighties I used to think that even if Venezuela was very corrupt, dangerously dependent on oil and going towards a crisis, we were inmune to the worst ills of Latin American countries: military dictatorships and civil wars.


South America in the late seventies (in red: military regimes either in full form as in Argentina, Uruguay or Chile or in some sort of military "transition" as in Peru and Brazil):

Our presidents were mostly lawyers and physicians, even if they often looked more like dishonest cowboys. There were many immigrants from Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and other countries who arrived in Venezuela escaping from dictatorships. In each class from primary school to university there were at least a dozen sons or daughters of Spaniards, Portuguese or of Eastern European origin escaping from dictatorship. One of my best friends at high school was from Chile, another one was from Uruguay. I knew about Venezuela's past dictatorships because of what my parents would tell me: about how life was under Pérez Jiménez, the right-winged dictator Hugo Chávez admires, or about how my grandparents suffered during the Gómez dictatorship. It was only after the caracazo and specially in 1991 that I started to see the real military threat. People were fed up with the corrupt democracy we had and started to long for "those times when streets were secure and there were big constructions and less poverty". Already at the end of 1991 I remember how a good friend of mine and I were discussing when a coup may happen. We rejected any such action but we knew it was in the making. We were sure it would come on the first quarter of 1992. We did not know it out of some relationship with the military, we had none. We were just reading the signs on the wall. We were, unfortunately, very right: on 4 February there was the first bloody coup in many decades, led by our current president. In November, there was another even bloodier coup attempt.

Still, I did not realise to what extend Venezuelans always had been prisoners of our long-standing infatuation with the military. I did not know how we were bound to repeat history because of the general ignorance Venezuelans have of it.

I always knew the Bolívar cult was over the top, but it was something I found rather kitsch and nothing more. I appreciated the good things Bolívar did or was supposed to have done and I thought the cult was something that did not really hurt, like some non-extremist religion. Every visitor to Venezuela has seen it: the omnipresent cult to Simón Bolívar, a Venezuelan who played a key role in the Independence war in South America. The highest peak, the largest state, the main avenues and squares in every city or town, countless institutions, the main airport and the currency are some of the many things called after him. Bolívar's name is everywhere. The admiration for Bolívar is not only in Venezuela, but in Venezuela the name is so often used that it can get confusing.

There was a hat called "Bolívar" in Europe in the XIX century, a hat liberals would wear. Bolívar was definitely admired everywhere in the Americas and Europe and the many places - towns, streets, squares - called after him are a proof of this. People saw not just his opposition against the Spanish imperialism, but against slavery, against oppression of the Native Americans. It helped a lot that Bolívar died still in his forties.

Still, the cult for Bolívar's has been above all a Venezuelan disease. Bolívar rejected the title of a king, but he wanted to be president for life. He declared he only aspired to have the title "Liberator of Venezuela", as if Venezuela's independence would have been inconceivable without him. I won't get into the dark parts of Bolívar's role here, but will go more into the instrumentalization of his memory and that of the other military of his time in Venezuela's history*.

Once the country became independent, the military who fought in the wars claimed special rights for themselves, as "próceres", as the ones who had fought with the "Libertador". One of our first presidents, who was not a military, physician Vargas, had to resign after much pressure from the military demanding more power. Most of Venezuela's heads of states after that and until 1958 were military or the puppets of military.

Almost every single president since the Independence declared himself a "Bolivarian", whatever that would mean for the time. As historian Manual Caballero said in his "Por qué no soy Bolivariano" (Why I am not a Bolivarian), caudillo Monagas declared himself a "revolutionary", promoted special rights for the military (something the current president has done as well in indirect ways), claimed to revive the Gran Colombia and placed many relatives on top positions in the government, just as our current president. And he was thrown out of the presidential palace in 1858 by people shouting "Death to the thieves". Several dictators were particularly active in cultivating the Bolívar cult but two used this new religion with particular zeal: Guzmán Blanco and Juan Vicente Gómez. Bolívar became some sort of demi-God and anyone associating himself with Bolívar became protected by this divinity.




Gómez in 1934









History books everywhere the world, specially in schools, tend to glorify the national past or at least a part of it. Still, those in Venezuela have been particularly focused on the Independence time. It hasn't helped that many of them were written mostly by people who were anything but professional historians. It did not help that Venezuelans for many reasons always tended to have an abysmal knowledge of history.

Humboldt was on a related topic when he wrote:

"Native Americans kept their language, their national dress and their national character...[but] through the introduction of christianity and other circumstances I analyse elsewhere, historical and religious heritage progressively became lost. On the other side the settler of European origin looks down upon anything that refers to the dominated nations. He sees himself in the middle between the ancient history of the motherland and the one of his birth country and he is as indifferent to one as to the other; in a climate where the small difference between seasons makes the passing of the years almost unnoticeable he only thinks about enjoying the present and he seldom looks back at the past".

"Der Eingeborene hat seine Sprache, seine Tracht und seinen Volkscharakter behalten..durch die Einführung des Christentums und andere Umstände, die ich anderswo auseinander gesetzt, sind die geschichtlichen und religiösen Ueberlieferungen allmählich untergegangen. Andererseits sieht der Ansiedler von europäischer Abkunft verächtlich auf alles herab, was sich auf die unterworfenen Völker bezieht. Er sieht sich in die Mitte gestellt zwischen die frühere Geschichte des Mutterlandes und die seines Geburtslandes, und die eine ist ihm so gleichgültig wie die andere; in einem Klima, wo bei dem geringen Unterschied der Jahreszeiten der Ablauf der Jahre fast unmerklich wird, überläßt er sich ganz dem Genusses der Gegenwart und wirft selten einen Blick in Vergangene Zeiten."


The native American, the European and the African slave all merged into the average Venezuelan of today, but we still show either a complete disdain for history or love for one part of it, the part we identify ourselves most with. You will find most Venezuelans with some education know Bolivar's birthday and death anniversary and they can quote Bolívar for this or that. Most of them would not know in what century the Europeans arrived in Venezuela or what reactionary tendencies Bolívar had. They would not know a lot of very basic stuff about world history and Venezuela's link to it all.

That is how Chávez can say now all Indians were socialists and equal and most of his followers believe it (see this video in Spanish from from 4:00 or before) or that we are mostly a native American and African-American nation (the European part supposedly being mostly that of the opposition, see my posts on genetics). That is also why some very racist right wingers paint European conquistadores in such rosy terms and still use the term "indio" as an insult, probably not even knowing most of us are both of European and native American origin, if not also sub-Saharan.

It is in that framework that Venezuelans have evolved. As the economic situation of a nation highly addicted to petrodollars deteriorated in the eighties and nineties, a group of military pretending to defend some nebulous Bolívar heritage prepared the bloody coups of 1992.

Hugo Chávez has taken the Bolívar cult to new heights. He needs to do that. He single-handedly renamed Venezuela in 1999 by adding the "Bolivarian" adjective, even if the approved constitutional draft had taken away that proposal of his. His movement is naming the most spurious organizations or events "Bolivarianos". Never mind their image of what Bolívar thought at any given time is rather distorted.














Now take a look at these maps. In the first one you see Venezuela's states. The largest state , in cyan, is called Bolívar. The states in red have been called after military honchos from the times of the Independence movement.












The following map shows Venezuela's municipalities. Municipalities in cyan are called Bolívar or Simón Bolívar. Municipalities in dark blue are called Libertador (referring, of course, to Bolívar). Those in red are called after military who fought in the Independence war. The ones in yellow are called after other military. Here you can see how things are in Colombia: although our neighbours also have some areas called after military, the ratio is lower. The same goes with other countries I am aware of. As you may suspect, we have some issues with the military. We have the Bolívar syndrome.
























President Time in power remark Profession
Cristóbal Mendoza, Juan Escalona and Baltasar Padrón 1811-1812
Lawyer / Military/ Big landowner * Respectively
Francisco de Miranda 1812
Military
Simón Bolívar 1813-1814
Military
José Antonio Páez 1830- 1835
Military
Andrés Narvarte 1835-1835
Lawer / Politician
José María Vargas 1835-1836
Physician, Scientist,Professor
Andrés Narvarte 1836-1837
Lawyer / Politician
José María Carreño 1837-1837
Military
Carlos Soublette 1837-1839
Military
José Antonio Páez 1839-1843
Military
Carlos Soublette 1843-1847
Military
José Tadeo Monagas 1847-1851
Military
José Gregorio Monagas 1851-1855
Military
José Tadeo Monagas 1855-1858
Military
Pedro Gual Escandon 1858-1858
Lawer / Politician
Julián Castro 1858-1859 coup Military
Pedro Gual Escandon 1859-1859
Lawyer / Politician
Manuel Felipe Tovar 1859-1861 coup Politician
Pedro Gual Escandon 1861-1861
Lawyer / Politician
José Antonio Páez 1861-1863
Military
Juan Crisóstomo Falcón 1863 - 1868 war Military
Manuel Ezequiel Bruzual 1868-1868
Military
Guillermo Tell Villegas 1868-1869
Lawyer and military
José Ruperto Monagas 1869-1870 war Military
Guillermo Tell Villegas 1870-1870
Lawyer/ Military
Antonio Guzmán Blanco 1870-1877 war Lawyer /Military
Francisco Linares Alcántara 1877-1878
Military
José Gregorio Varela 1878-1879
Military / Politician
Antonio Guzmán Blanco 1879-1884
Lawyer /Military
Joaquín Sinforiano de Jesús Crespo 1884-1886
Military
Antonio Guzmán Blanco 1886-1887
Lawyer /Military
Hermógenes López 1887 - 1888
Military
Juan Pablo Rojas Paúl 1888 - 1890
Lawyer
Raimundo Andueza Palacio 1890-1892
Lawyer
Guillermo Tell Villegas 1892-1892
Lawyer and Military
Joaquín Sinforiano de Jesús Crespo 1892-1894 war Military
Ignacio Andrade 1898-1899
Politician
Cipriano Castro Ruiz 1899-1908 coup Military
Juan Vicente Gómez 1908-1914 coup Military
Jose Gil Fortoul (Gomez puppet) 1914-1915
Writer
Victorino Márquez Bustillos (Gómez puppet) 1915-1922
Lawyer / Politician
Juan Vicente Gómez 1922-1929
Military
Juan Bautista Pérez (Gómez puppet) 30 de mayo de 1929 -
13 de junio de 1931

Lawyer /judge
Juan Vicente Gómez 13 de junio de 1931 -
17 de diciembre de 1935

Military
Eleazar López Contreras 17 de diciembre de 1935 -
5 de mayo de 1941

Military
Isaías Medina Angarita 5 de mayo de 1941 -
18 de octubre de 1945

Military
Rómulo Ernesto Betancourt Bello 18 de octubre de 1945 -
17 de febrero de 1948
coup Politician
Rómulo Gallegos Freire 17 de febrero de 1948 -
24 de noviembre de 1948

Writer
Carlos Delgado Chalbaud 24 de noviembre de 1948 -
27 de noviembre de 1950
coup Military
Germán Suárez Flamerich 27 de noviembre de 1950 -
2 de diciembre de 1952
transition by coupsters Lawyer
Marcos Pérez Jiménez 2 de diciembre de 1952 -
23 de enero de 1958
coup Military/Engineer
Wolfgang Larrazábal 23 de enero de 1958 -
14 de noviembre de 1958
coup Military
Edgar Sanabria 14 de noviembre de 1958 -
13 de febrero de 1959

Lawyer
Rómulo Ernesto Betancourt Bello 13 de febrero de 1959 -
13 de marzo de 1964

Politician
Raúl Leoni Otero 13 de marzo de 1964 -
11 de marzo de 1969

Lawyer
Rafael Caldera Rodríguez 11 de marzo de 1969 -
12 de marzo de 1974

Lawyer
Carlos Andrés Pérez Rodríguez 12 de marzo de 1974 -
12 de marzo de 1979

Politician
Luis Herrera Campins 12 de marzo de 1979 -
2 de febrero de 1984

Lawer
Jaime Lusinchi 2 de febrero de 1984 -
2 de febrero de 1989

Physician
Carlos Andrés Pérez Rodríguez 2 de febrero de 1989 -
21 de mayo de 1993

Politician
Octavio Lepage 21 de mayo de 1993 -
5 de junio de 1993

Lawer
Ramón José Velásquez 5 de junio de 1993 -
2 de febrero de 1994

Writer, historian
Rafael Caldera Rodríguez 2 de febrero de 1994 -
2 de febrero de 1999

Lawer
Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías 2 de febrero de 1999 -
10 de enero de 2001
(elected, but former coupster) Military

Pedro Carmona Estanga 12 de abril de 2002-
13 de abril de 2002
(2 días)
coup Economist
Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías 13 de abril de 2002 - 10 de enero de 2013


*
Worth reading if you speak Spanish: Por qué no soy bolivariano: ISBN 10: 9803541994
Also worth reading is what Karl Marx, the heroe of virtually every communist, wrote about Bolívar. Although the truth is probably in the middle, you have to read Marx's view on the Venezuelan figure here.

Thursday, 22 October 2009

Venezuela's West


This picture comes from the ESA.

It shows the Northwestern part of Venezuela.

For those who don't know my country very well:


































A) Venezuela borders with the European Union as the Netherlands Antilles (Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire) are just off the Venezuelan coast. The Dutch took those islands from the Spaniards in the XVII century.

B: The Paraguana Peninsula and very close the historical city of Coro. The brown colour comes from the huge amounts of sands washed out. Between the Peninsula and the mainland we have the Medanos, Sahara-like dunes.

Further to the East the Morrocoy Park.













C: The tip of the Guajira Peninsula, mostly part now of Colombia but also of Venezuela (before the border was right in the middle). The Wayúu Indians live there between both countries.

D: The Lake Maracaibo, where most of the first oil fields were found. Maracaibo, Venezuela's second largest city, is on the North-Eastern shores. The Lake is the largest lake of South America (it is a brakish lake).

E: The Venezuelan Andes.

F: The Venezuelan Llanos (sort of very wild Pampas, crisscrossed by a thousand rivers, including the Orinoco).

Monday, 12 October 2009

Democracy for wallies

Blogger Quico has often presented excellent "Power Points for Dummies" to explain the inexplicable quirks and twists of Venezuelan economics and politics.

I will just present here a table comparing some government systems.

At the eve of the discussions to allow for unlimited re-election in Venezuela, professional Chavez apologists, people like Weissbrot, constantly said critics of the possibility of indefinite nomination for the post of president were hypocrites as "nobody elects the Queen of England and many heads of state in Europe can be nominated with no term limit". Weisbrot said

"And, of course, there's nothing in this reform that says people have to or should reelect Chavez. You know, all Europe, that I know of, does not have term limits—you know, England, France, Germany, Spain." There was little serious discussion about in the international press about what a president in Venezuela can do as compared to a German chancellor or a British prime minister or an Uruguayan president or another head of state.

Obviously, we know queens and kings are mostly there now for using scissors at inaugurations. What about the real heads of state?

Here you have a table. We don't get into the details about separation of powers and many other things. You can judge for yourself.

CountryType of systemPossible consecutive termsTerm length in years
Francemixed25
Germanyparliamentarianno limit4
Italyparliamentarianno limit5
Norwayparliamentarianno limit4
Spainparliamentarianno limit4
United Kingdomparliamentarianno limit5 or less
Argentinapresidential24
Brazilpresidential24
Canadaparliamentarianno limit5 or less
Chilepresidential15
Colombiapresidential2 (3 in the future?)4
Costa Ricapresidential14
Cubapresidentialno limit5
Mexicopresidential16
Uruguaypresidential15
USApresidential24
Venezuelapresidentialno limit
6
Venezuela before 98:presidential 1 5

Here we have the president of Venezuela talking and talking and talking to his employees (most in red).
Here we have the normal debates the British Parliament is so famous for.
Here you have a German TV debate (old video, but there are lots of those debates pre- and after elections) with the leaders of conservatives, social democrats, economic liberals, ecologists and the extreme left.
The Venezuelan president now getting into an open debate and answering questions other than about his favourite colour? Unthinkable.

There are lots of differences between parliamentarian systems and presidential systems as well as between different parliamentarian and presidential systems, but this should give you an idea already about what kind of system Venezuela is getting closer and closer to (and no, we are far from being a socialist country, we are closer to the system prevalent in Russia now, even if the Russian government is economically not as inept as the Venezuelan one)

Thursday, 27 August 2009

Rule of Law in Venezuela


I have written a lot about crime in Venezuela. Here I present a map on perception of the real rule of law based on the World Bank data (as my last post).

Again, colours refer to what percentile group countries fall into.
Here Chile is undisputed in South America with regards to rule of law: even if far from perfect, there is such a thing as rule of law there. It is in the 75-90 percentile. Still, its values are below most Western European countries. Uruguay follows in the next group and it stands alone there. Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Argentina are the next. Here you see already very dysfunctional states, but sometimes judges can piss off governors, even heads of state, justice is done from time to time! Ecuador, Bolivia and Paraguay come in the next group, the 10-25 percentile. And last and least we have Venezuela, at the bottom of South America. As I calculated in one of my previous posts using basic maths and based on the candid figures of the minister of "Justice", a Venezuelan cop is over 150 times more likely to be a criminal than the average Venezuelan citizen. Russian cops thought no one could teach them anything.

The figures below, again, show the percentile rank, the change from the previous year and the standard error of statistical calculation.

ARGENTINA 32.1 -0.61 0.13
BOLIVIA 12.0 -1.12 0.14
BRAZIL 46.4 -0.30 0.13
CHILE 88.0 +1.25 0.13
COLOMBIA 37.8 -0.50 0.13
ECUADOR 9.1 -1.23 0.14
PARAGUAY 15.3 -1.03 0.15
PERU 25.8 -0.74 0.13
URUGUAY 65.6 +0.50 0.15
VENEZUELA 2.9 -1.59 0.13


Tuesday, 25 August 2009

Venezuela's Evils













We know about Hugo's countless speeches every week, where ministers and everybody looking for favours are forced to listen to his ranting and applaud for hours.

We have seen how the custom of long speeches among his mini-Mes in Venezuela and abroad is expanding.



In Venezuela those mini-Mes are mostly the new regional caudillos and other would-like-to-be caudillos like the infamous police officer who gave the speech you can watch on the link or the bosses of bureacrats as told in Caracas Chronicles.

You wonder: how can people endure all this?

Basically, it goes all over again to a couple of issues:


1) Venezuela is a petrostate, it has been importing almost everything and exporting almost only oil for decades now and the government has control of that oil

2) A large proportion of Venezuelans do believe in some form of cargo cult: they think the problem is about wealth distribution, not production, honesty, real education as opposed to degrees.

3) The leaders of the opposition in general - at the universities, in public offices, in parties - , as opposed to the average non-chavista, are mostly representatives of the former upper-class: the education law sucks? They express the worries of parents with children in private schools (who make up 20% of all pupils), of students and professors fearing a worsening of university conditions...all valid arguments, but they forget to talk about equally valid interests relevant for 80% of pupils, they forget to talk about quality, accountability, about new ideas

The economy will keep deteriorating. What will happen?
Don't think things will be over soon unless the opposition changes its strategy. Even if there are less and less petrodollars pouring in, the regime has other tools.

Expect

1) More expropriation of lands owned by opponents to the regime (not of the many lands owned by the new Boliburguesía)
2) More expropriation of houses and other buildings owned by regime opponents, rich and not so rich (not by the rich Boliburgueses)
3) The re-implementation of the already announced taxes on bank transactions
4) The infiltration of more and more companies with chavista union leaders who will lead workers to believe - for a time - they are taking over production means, when in reality they are just making production collapse (Venezuelan workers having no idea about how unproductive they are in comparison to the rest of the world)
5) More deals signed by the regime to pawn Venezuelan resources and future to Chinese, Brazilians or anyone ready to risk lending more money to Venezuela in expectation that oil prices will again raise to 2008 levels (something very probable, either due to Oil Peak, higher demand or about anything)

The last point is particularly worrying for all Venezuelans on a long term basis. Although the government initially was able to reduce foreign debt due to much higher oil prices, the situation is now reverting in a manner that could put us in worse difficulties than our debts in the eighties. Some of the deals the government has been signing are compromising Venezuela's very incomes. Above all: Venezuela's infrastructure is crumbling down.

The government is selling the new education law as a way to improve the chances of poor pupils to go to university. Until now state universities have been free but students coming from private schools have been overrepresented (about 50% when they are less than 20%). This is due to the fact that Venezuela's pre-university studies are too bad and last less than they should.

What nobody is telling, neither the government nor the opposition, is that the key to university success are schools were analytical thought, pluralism, creativity, planning and discipline are taught.

What nobody is telling, neither the government nor the opposition, is that we are running out of time to avoid a societal collapse in a few years due to ever-growing needs and ever-decreasing production and educational capabilities.

Friday, 14 August 2009

Chavismo at work

This picture was taken on Thursday when Chávez fans attacked and wounded 12 journalists. The journalists were not even from the regime-critical El Nacional, but from Últimas Noticias, which has a rather sympathetic position towards the government...at least until now.

Meanwhile, there are still some people who work as journalists and who write things like what Mr Rodrigo Orihuela wrote in this article in The Guardian.

Mr Orihuela says there that the Western and mostly English speaking press "does not get it" at all in Latin America. I must own up I am very cautious about a lot of topics in the press in general and more specifically in the US media. I think it helps to speak other languages and get the versions - left, right, centre - in German, in Dutch, in Russian. Now, Mr Orihuela says the Western (English, I suppose) media uses the term "populist" as an umbrella for everything without addressing "the fact that those "populist" leaders have tapped into a dormant feeling ignored until now by previous leaders. Even certain critics of Hugo Chávez and other "populists" are willing to admit this this." Indeed Chávez has known how to tap on the people's sentiments, but the questions that are raised are:

Does it mean that is not populism? Aren't populists always tapping into those feelings? Has the military of Barinas really satisfied those feelings? How? How did he finance his projects? Did the governments that preceeded him from 1985 to 1998 have the same income he could get from oil revenues? (which are the only meaningful export in a country that imports almost all the rest)
Is Mr Chávez respecting the rule of law? Those are questions that should not be put aside either, less you want to be as superficial and biased as, say, FOW NEWS.

Mr Orihuela says the West is being paternalistic by implying those who vote for the comandante don't know better. Mr Orihuela says they are voting intelligently. I wonder if he would say the same thing about those people when they voted twice for Carlos Andrés Pérez and twice for Rarael Caldera. Were they then intelligent? Even Mr chavez family were rapid pro-Copei supporters (Copei was the party of caldera). Would Mr Orihuela say the same thing about people voting for Bush Junior for a second time?

And: are there really so many Venezuelans who support Chavez now?

Fortunatelly, Mr Orihuela is not a regular journalist of that newspaper, but one of the free contributors, like Mr Gott, another Chávez apologist. The regular journalist of The Guardian is Rory Carrol, who can see beyond the simplistic Middle Earth attitude of extremists on either side of the political zoo.


PS. If you are Venezuelan and haven't answer to the poll on the right, please, take a look at it and answer if possible. I am preparing a post on education in Venezuela.


Wednesday, 27 May 2009

Venezuela's Alpha and Omega II















Here you see another of my lousy charts where you see oil prices per month since 1983.
Venezuela's oil is usually cheaper than the average OPEC, WTI or Brent. The first bar indicates 1990. During most of that decade the average oil price was below $20 per barrel. Chavez got there when oil prices were the lowest for over a decade. Chavez still has a lot of resources at his disposal, but he cannot afford for long prices under 40. Venezuela's population has increased since 1998 in at least 6 million people and Chavez has to pay loyalties to many more in Venezuela and above all abroad.

Sunday, 18 January 2009

Chavez and our Indians

The Economist has published an interesting article about native Americans in Venezuela and their problems. You can check it out here.

The article is specifically about the Yukpas, but there are a lot more and worst issues affecting other tribes. I will be posting on that and some ideas in my Spanish blog next week.

Below just some images of the Yukpas.


Wednesday, 17 December 2008

Chavismo (and Venezuelan politics) in a picture



















Here you can see very clearly the development of Chavismo plotted against yearly OPEC oil prices. In red at the end you can see the current (week) average price of OPEC oil.

For those who don't know much about Venezuela: 90% of its foreign income derives from oil exports controlled by the state (it has always been like that). Around 50% of the national tax revenues comes directly from oil and a lot of the taxes that make up the rest are produced by commercial activities largely supported by the oil income itself (like taxes on whiskey or imported cars)


UPDATE: some Chavista supporters came up to tell me the chart proofs Chávez wins most of the elections when prices are low. This shows again their understanding of charts. Apart from Chávez's first elections, when he was new, when he was "the new promise", all other elections he has won have been with prices higher than before. The moment of great distress for him, when he was outsted, was at a time when prices seemed to drop a bit. Of course, now Venezuela has been able to save some money, but it is much less than what Chavismo needs. When Chávez allowed, under international pressure, to have a referendum (one year after it was asked), the government was for a couple of months already giving away for free red bags full of food and a big "NO" (not to the referendum) on them. In 2004 oil prices (and thus, governmental revenues) were much higher than at any given time for many years. But of course, for Chavismo now prices are low if they are not over $100 per barrel...so corrupt has Venezuela become.

Monday, 3 November 2008

Spanish blog

I have been very busy so I haven't been able to update my Spanish blog, but I will do so
next weekend with some updates about the elections plus some personal ideas about what to do to get Venezuela on the road towards sustainable development.

Sunday, 12 October 2008

FOX: US Venezolana de Televisión? Rumblings on US-Venezuela

No, it is not that bad, but it is pretty bad.
Look at this:
FOX just selecting the non-critical part

The Youtuber here is right: FOX, as usual, is just showing what fits their wee world.

I found The Economist's edition of 4th October 2008 one of the best reviews I have seen about the US campaign so far. It would be nice if both Republicans and Democrats could sit down and read aloud from those articles.

Whatever I say will be seen as a reason for Conservatives to vote for the candidate they wanted to vote already, but I will say it for the Europeans and Venezuelans out there: I believe, now more than ever, as other Venezuelan opposition bloggers, that Obama will respond on a more firm way than McCain. I am sure Chávez would be be happy to get a McCain and specially a Palin as his counterparts in the US. Obama will help the US get back more of the admiration and respect it used to have. McCain and Palin would divide more and keep the US in this "crusade attitude" towards the world.

Do you know what the extreme Conservatives are using against Obama? This
apart from other accusations he is a "Muslim, a friend of terrorists" and the like. As The Economist stated, the Republicans are now so sure they cannot win on serious topics, they have to use mud-throwing. Obama has stated there and later in a very clear way what his position is. He has later being much more specific about Chávez's regime and condemn it in a much more clear way than McCain. But beyond that, he has shown more respect and insight when treating the rest of the world and that is an asset for the US as well.

There are still things I do not like of Obama's proposals, but in general I would say: he is better for the US and he would be better for promoting democracy in Latin America.



Friday, 9 May 2008

Education and accountability


The countries in white are those countries in South America that still do not take part in the PISA programme. Why are they not there? Simply because they are not interested in accountability.

Do you detect patterns with regards to development, transparency and corruption levels?