Murder statistics won't show you a linear equation...and yet you can clearly see the trend when you plot the data. In the first chart, the murders in the central state of Carabobo for the month of July from 2004 until now are shown. Before 1998 the total number of murders in Carabobo would be a fraction of that.
The second chart shows just from 2006 the murders per municipality. Take a look there is some fluctuation. We still can say two municipalities are developing some serious issues: Juan José Mora and Carlos Arvelo. Juan José Mora is a municipality in the coast with a particularly strong African American component. It is where PDVSA El Palito is located. Carlos Arvelo is a mostly rural area to the Southeast of Valencia and to the South of the Valencia Lake. Crime there probably is related to the expansion of Valencia's slums in the rather urban area of Tacarigua plus new arrivals of unskilled people who don't find a job plus the disastrous work of the local caudillo or mayor there, Marisol de Castellanos.