Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Carabobo unplugged

The electoral data in Venezuela can be quite interesting to mine...not just for election purposes. Here I show you some data from the central state of Carabobo. In the first image you see in black the average (rounded) age of voters in each municipio (for the Valencia municipality, in the 3 largest paroquias). In red you have for some municipios the percentage of people who voted for Chávez and the percentage for the democratic alliance.

Within the Valencia municipality (in yellow) you see quite a range of average age for voters. I put in brackets the percentage of votes the democratic alliance got. Some parishes are rather small, like Candelaria and Catedral, in the city centre. A lot of elderly live there. Now, what is clear and not surprising at all is that areas with big families tend to be poorer and tend to vote more for the military regime (just as they used to vote for Acción Democrática before).

Candelaria 47 (57.25%)
Catedral 48 (60.92%)
El Socorro 50 (71.78%)
Miguel Peña 41 (46.74%)Negro Primero 41 (20.38%)
Rafael Urdaneta 42 (54.48%)
San Blas 48 (67.42%)
San José 46 (88.78%)
Santa Rosa 44 (49.78%)

Age does not correlate completely with vote preference: Rafael Urdaneta's average voter - 42 years old, rather poor, tends to be more inclined to support the democratic forces, whereas the Puerto Cabello inhabitant, with a similar age (just a tiny bit poorer) does not.

Now, let's look at the birth year distribution for the northernmost and the southernmost urban parishes of Valencia:

Miguel Peña is lower class to lower middle class and San José is lower middle class upwards, whereby most people are just middle-middle class.

Obviously, the place where the democratic forces should focus their efforts now is in Valencia's South and in the peripheral municipalities.

We would need to get uodated hard data on income and education levels, but that is very hard to get in a country as Venezuela. Still, more to come...

(I did not show those voters who still exist and were born from 1870 onwards)

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