Monday, 5 July 2010

How Chávez controls Venezuela and Chávez leaving office

Total number of murders in Carabobo State per municipality

The murder rate in Venezuela in the year military Chávez came to power was 19 murders per 100 000 inhabitants. Now it is over 60 murders per 100 000. Venezuela's murder rate is by far the highest in South America, much worse than Colombia's. It is much higher than Mexico's, in spite of horrible Ciudad Juarez. The Venezuelan regime stopped sending the stats on murder rate to UNODC in 2002, but still we can get the murder stats per region if we nag and nag the local police and visit the overstretched mortuaries.

The government refuses to hold an open real debate about the figures. It has redefined what a murder is. The government tells people "there are murders in Northern Mexico, there are murders in Norway, in Italy", "criminality is caused because of the previous republic, because of the past, because of capitalism".

And those who can, the best professionals and the most likely to oppose in an organized and no-violent fashion the militarization of the country, the emerging dictatorship, they go away. And those who stay become afraid. Most of the murders occur in the poorest areas, where Chávez still has more voters and where people are starting to change sides.

The regime thinks that by instilling fear in the general population, people will be afraid of spreading news, of debating, or marching in the areas the regime still - just still- has some support. The regime is wrong.

Murders in Carabobo state in May 2010 (approximate location per municipality)

Chávez leaving office

And my very unscientific poll goes on. Here you have the latest results about when our readers think Chávez ceases to be head of state of Venezuela. Less people think he will be out before 2012 but more think he will be indeed out before 2014.

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