Saturday, 28 July 2012

How ill is Chávez really?

This is what you think:

68 persons took part in the poll. I think Chávez has greatly exaggerated his illness, but that's my guess and on the right you see some other people's guesses - foreigners and Venezuelans alike. What is it? Anything could be right: this is Venezuela.

In any case, today is his birthday. He has been ruling Venezuela for 14 years and he wants to rule it at least for 6 more years, even if he has said he may want to be president for a longer period. I hope he lives a long life...and goes to trial for his violations of human rights and the way he mismanaged Venezuela's longest oil boom ever.

Ps. and I see now Toro has finally realised Chávez may not die any time soon. He talks about how Dan Rather got it so wrong, but in reality Toro himself was also rather sure about Hugo I's prompt demise. I think gringos and people basing their data on US sources were feeding themselves over and over again from the same anonymous sources. We have seen that before.


  1. Somehow I'm glad he didn't die and when the high oil prices bubble bursts many people will see him for the hack he really is and wont become the next Peron.

  2. We can only guess, but I don't think prices will drop dramatically anymore. They can stagnate at most. Chávez will try to ask for loans time after time and that could give him a few years more.
    The opposition must urgently take a twofold strategy. It is not only about winning the elections next October. It is about creating efficient networks nationwide to discuss on a permanent basis about the economy and plans for development, it is about educating people and telling them that if the economy is not completely tanking, if some of them are still getting some Mercal food etc and the hope to "win the lottery" with a house (nothing but a lottery these days), it is at the cost of their children's future. And then we need to explain as best as possible about how the current government is giving our resources away, how much people could do with what is now being spent in weapons, and last but not least we need to explain about the corruption cases like the one Coronel has documented so well.
    People are not stupid. They just got a crappy education, they have no framework of reference. Just educate them! This is a middle-term process at best. If you don't start it right now, we risk a civil war or just further underdevelopment for many decades to come.

  3. You are right and I agree that people in Venezuela is not stupid and have a critical nature (Chavistas complain when they dont like something)is the lack of parameters to discern what's a good government and in the end many just regard good intentions

  4. But regarding Chavez's illness I'm glad it wasnt as bad as they said so he can face eventually the consequences of his actions, if not the political ones, the criminal ones and doesn't become a Peron figure in Venezuela.


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