As The Guardian's correspondent Rory Carroll said," President Hugo Chávez is encountering unexpectedly strong opposition to a referendum on constitutional reform which would cement his rule in Venezuela, with violent clashes between rival demonstrations and security forces feeding a mood that the country is at a turning point."
He mentions the polls predicting either a win of the No vote or a tie, but he also points out to the fact that polls have a record of underestimating his support. He mentions the possibility the supreme court may accept a petition to postpone the vote. Carroll says that although the petition was lodged by the opposition when it thought it would lose, such a ruling would now be a gift to the government. I very much doubt it: simply said, the government has shown it has gone as far (politically speaking) as the enormous revenues from oil exports can take it. Unless there is a dramatic increase in oil prices, it won't be able to keep its popularity like that. The economy is showing strain, the Venezuelan currency's devaluation is looming, basic products are scarcer by the day and criminality keeps on growing while the government keeps on denying it. Chavez has to risk it this Sunday and he will possibly use every conceivable method. Here we come to one of them:
Chavez supporters are circulating a memo they say they "intercepted" from CIA agents inside the US embassy. Curiously, the memo is in Spanish. Why did they not show it also in English? Out of respect for those who do not speak English? But why is there no sign, not a single link of such a document in English? Lack of space to add the link? Hello? Might it be the CIA uses now Spanish as a lingua franca among its agents? Have we Latinos advanced so far in the USA that they communicate among each other in Spanish at the CIA? I suspect it is a fake paper. Perhaps the Chavistas can put their act together and ask some extreme-left US citizen to translate the paper for them.
Oh...I see, Eva Golinger is translating it into the "original language" here. Well, she is translating at least the key facts.
What I think is the original (in Spanish) is here:
Aporrea (a pro-Chavez site, "Aporrea" means "hit")
But Eva writes: "The original document in English will be available in the public sphere soon for viewing and authenticating purposes. And it also contains more information than has been revealed here."
More info on Eva Gollinger (in Spanish) at Tal Cuál
Hugo Chávez declared in his last official speech before the referendum that indeed, there is a "US conspiracy" called "Tenaza". In his discourse (check out a summary of it in Spanish in the very government page) he said he was going to win with AT LEAST over 15%. This is more than bluffing, if you care to read the whole Spanish link you will see the whole tone he is using.