Monday, 1 March 2010

Why does violent crime keep worsening in Venezuela?

Do you think Mexico is a failed state? It is probably a mess, but Venezuela is worse, considering it has a murder rate that is several times that of Mexico (and that is not the only parameter in which Venezuela is failing very badly).

Here you have an update of murders in Carabobo. Each colour represents a municipality. There were less murders in February than in January of this year, but that happens every year. Murder rates are not linear functions: there is a huge hike in December (when people get a lot of dosh) and things "stabilize" in February, although since chavismo is in power it stabilizes at a worse level. There were more murders this February tha than in February of last year. The trend is very similar everywhere in Venezuela. I have the state numbers for earlier years, but not per municipality. There were less than 50 murders in that region per month in 1998, still a lot but less than 1/3 of what we have today. Reader Vicente was telling us he believes the horrendous rise of crime in Venezuela, with no comparison in the rest of South America, may be due to some plan by chavismo to scare people...literally to death. You are bound to keep indoors and don't protest if you see life is worth nothing in Venezuela. Is that the explanation? Or simple incompetence? Or a mixture of it all?

Of course we will never know what the regime thinks as the government refuses to answer to specific questions and Venezuela has a presidential system where the president just holds monologues.

And what is my reader's current opinion about how long the president will last in power? Things haven't changed so much. There are a little bit more people who think he will be out before the end of next year but there are also many more who think he will only leave office after 2021. Please, drop by and vote again this month. It just takes a second or two. Thanks!

Ps. I don't get the same amount of people answering every month and these people are everywhere on Earth, so I don't intend this poll to be scientific or something. It is just fun.

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