Tuesday, 1 January 2008

Chavismo /km² in Carabobo

Apologies for the bad quality of this picture. I just drew it on a run.

This shows the density of the group who voted for Chavez' reform proposal in Carabobo on the 2nd of December of 2007: the redder the region, the highest the number of Chavistas per square km. (based on CNE figures on votes for Si as shown in the table below).

There is no rocket science here. The NO won in Carabobo, as in all major metropolitan areas. We know Chavismo is still strong in the poorest areas, but it is rapidly losing ground there. We also know it is particularly strong the farther you get from main cities.

Now, the map is interesting for other reasons: here you can see very easily the main regions where the opposition needs to focus to win national elections. A more granular mapping would be even better, but I haven't found one showing parroquias. The Municipio Valencia as a whole has a lower density of Chavista voters than Los Guayos, but obviously, there are big concentrations of Chavistas in the Southern part of it, in the poorer areas, specially in Miguel Pena. There, in Miguel Pena there are over 58000 people who voted for Chavez (or at least that is what the CNE says, read further). It would be very red in the map if we had the information about what its exact borders within the Valencia municipality are.

The opposition needs to address those people, ask them what they want and also think of proposals for the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT of that population (something few people in Venezuela seem to think about).

Of course, one should not forget the less densely populated areas: conquering big amounts of territory might have an important psychological effect on everybody (this is specially the case for local elections).

Sí voters for part
% SI for part A
hard core Chavistas per square km (as SI voters)
Carlos Arvelo2702562,11% 32.37
Diego Ibarra2178666,2%275.77
Juan José Mora2983768,82%37.17
Los Guayos2654856,22%363.67
Puerto Cabello3399753,07%78.33
San Diego913726,46%86.2
San Joaquín1069554,63%84.21
of which
58718 are in
Miguel Pena
in Miguel Pena)

In Carlos Arvelos you have a little bit more SI voters than in Los Guayos, but in Los Guayos you have them all in a much more reduced place.

You can find a post of Caracas Chronicles here that talks also about the regional differences and what the opposition needs to address. Katy mentioned there the opposition parties need to go to the Llanos and do more work there.

I think what Katy said about minding the countryside is very important. Still, one needs to take into account the limited resources the opposition has and then think of ways to optimize one's efforts.

Just one interesting detail about the referendum in the Manuel Pena area: out of 62
voting centres, there is NO INFORMATION for 10 of them...and that in an urban area, in Venezuela's third largest city. How sloppy can the CNE be?

Voting Centre s SI-Block A votes for the Miguel Pena region within the Valencia area)

Anexo de Ruiz Pineda 977
Anexo Doctor Rafael Guerra Mendez 216
Centro Escolar Construccion Ford 217
Centro Preescolar Simon Bolivar 158
Colegio Luisa Caceres de Arismendi 777
Colegio Obra Social Don Bosco 1355
Colegio Ramon Ignasio Mendez 244
Colegio Miguel Angel Perez 1853
Colegio Antonio Ricaurte 2111
Escuela Basica Mon. Luis Henriquez 770
Escuela Basica Jose Regino Pena 4211
Escuela Basica Miguel G. Granadillo 1423
Escuela Bella Vista II 1539
Escuela Prof. Raul Villarroel 2157
Escuela 19 de Abril 863
Escuela Basica Bicentenario III 207
Escuela Basica Bolivariana La Paz 405
Escuela Basica El Milagro de Dios 392
Escuela Basica El Socorro 762
Escuela Basica Estadal General Diego Ibarra UNKNOWN
Escuela Basica Estadal Trapichito I UNKNOWN
Escuela Basica Irma Vivas de Marin 177
Escuela Basica Jose Felix Rivas 255
Escuela Basica Lomas de Funval 1391
Escuela Basica M. Arocha UNKNOWN
Escuela Basica Ruiz Pineda II 1786
Escuela Basica Jose Antonio Paez 2460
Escuela Fe y Alegria Dr. Leopoldo 1894
Escuela Nacional El Prado 872
Escuela Nacional Isidro Ramirez 2121
Escuela Nacional Manuel Alcazar 1806
Escuela Ruiz Pineda 1980
Escuela General Dr. Fco Espejo 2846
Grupo escolar Alfredo Pietri 763
Grupo escolar Isabel Fernandez de Ichazu 1029
Grupo escolar Nacional Jose Pocaterra 891
Grupo escolar nacional Simon Rodriguez 1320
Grupo escolar Padre Bergeretti 1285
Grupo escolar Ramon Diaz Sanchez 673
Jardin de Infancia Bolivariano San Agustin UNKNOWN
Jardin de Infancia Gustavo Machado UNKNOWN
Jardin de Infancia Venezuela 331
Liceo Alejo Zuloaga 1816
Liceo Ponce Bello 2234
Liceo Alicia Ferrer 932
Preescolar Bolivariano El Consejo 309
Preescolar Lomas de Funval UNKNOWN
Preescolar Ricardo Urriera 1965
U.E. Integral Lomas de Funval 1572
Unidad Educativa Colegio Luz de Carabobo UNKNOWN
Unidad Educativa Creacion Libertador I 172
Unidad Educativa El Vecino Mayor 465
Unidad Educativa Felipe Nery Pulido 329
Unidad Educativa Manuel Vicente Romero Garcia UNKNOWN
Unidad Educativa Rolando Carrillo 230
Unidad Educativa Rosalia Campins de Herrera UNKNOWN
Unidad Escolar Caribay UNKNOWN
Unidad Escolar Dr. Enrique Tejera 1528
Unidad Escolar Luis Beltran Pietro Figueroa 141
Unidad Escolar Negro Primero 1317
Unidad Escolar Reny Otolina 1081
Unidad Escolar Santa Maria de Calatrava 110
Total of SI A votes in that parroquia:

Sources Miguel Pena: CNE

The opposition needs to
  1. do more research on the distribution of people who still support this regime and address their concerns
  2. Give special attention to areas where it can reach the most amount of people specially for national elections, without forgetting the more far away regions
  3. Work out a strategy to traverse the less densely but still demographically very important areas while optimizing efforts (a version of the traveling salesman problem)
  4. Find out what is going on with the lots of "no results" specially in places where the opposition lost. 10 schools with no results in Miguel Pena? Hello?


  1. Actually what the opposition needs to do is to look at what's happening in San Diego (the strongest anti-Chavez area in Carabobo if not the country) and see what's working there and try to address the differences with other municipios.
    Then they can sell it to people and improve people lives.
    Then Chavez will never win.

  2. I think both things need to be taken into account: what is Scarano doing in San Diego and what are the special needs of regions such as Los Guayos.

    Scarano is a good manager, but you have to take into account Los Guayos and similar places have other challenges. The average income in Sann Diego is certainly lower than that of Northern Valencia, it is rather average stuff, but still, they are better off than the people in Los Guayos.


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