Friday, 11 May 2012

Chávez tweeting and other things

This is Chávez's twitter account pattern since 1 March.
Does it mean something? Perhaps, perhaps not. Capriles should rather outvote and not just outlive the caudillo. Even if the caudillo's wealthy minions will probably get into a cataplectic state for a time, we can be sure the most powerful already have a plan B.

Why is Capriles' popularity still so low compared to that of the caudillo?
There are many factors. Among other things, Capriles doesn't have the petrodollars Chávez has. Chávez's regime gives Haier washing machines and refrigerators by the hundreds of thousands. Chávez has all the state media and Capriles has only access to channels that can only reach 30% of the population. Even after two former Chavista honchos started to tell their stories about corruption within the regime, their former colleagues - dodders to the petrostate - remain unrepentant...and most Chavista followers either don't care or don't understand what level of corruption have been attained.

But this is not the only reason why Chávez remains so popular. Capriles also lacks charisma. The popularity of one is largely based on the lack of charisma of the other. And why is this? The main reason is rather technical: he doesn't have oratory least not yet. And why is that? There are again many factors, but one of them is his previous lack of interest for reading. This is fairly common among Venezuelans, even among those from wealthy origins. Capriles has got formal education but unlike Chávez, he hasn't probably read more than what he needed to read to finish his studies or to understand technical reports. Chávez may not know that mankind is older than 25 centuries and he has read in a very chaotic manner, but he still has read key books and fragments of stories that touch all kinds of people people...Not for nothing did he read Les Miserables and the Count of Monte Cristo while he was in jail for his bloody coup in 1992-93. He has also trained for decades to tell all kind of stories - first in the soldier's barracks, then in the palace and on every TV. 

Capriles is visiting Venezuela house-by-house. This can seem impressive for some but it is not very efficient. He needs those oratory skills to address the masses and he needs to present his message in a moving story. 

Chávez, on the other hand, cannot rely forever on Haier refrigerators and the sympathies derived from his countless shows of the past. He needs to start travelling through Venezuela in August at the latest.

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