Bad news for the Venezuelan caudillo

Obama won again. Venezuela's caudillo had previously expressed he "preferred" Obama getting re-elected but we know he was lying. It's much harder for him to use Obama as the Bogeyman than someone like Bush or Romney.

Chávez was probably expecting US conservatives to use his statement to increase their chances: "look, Chávez is an ally of Obama!" And indeed that is what happened. But most US Americans had a thousand other priorities. What the military man from Venezuela's Western Llanos may say doesn't really matter that much to most abroad but for Cubans and Nicaraguan politicians, Russian weapon dealers, Lukashenko and a few others.

The current president of Venezuela couldn't get the much needed Bogeyman

Oil price development versus GDP growth

Based on World Bank and OPEC figures, I came up with this new chart.  What you see yearly GDP growth and oil price variation (OPEC basket).

The developments are not synchronous but they tell us a story: oil hikes are becoming less and less productive for the Chavezcracy. Unless there is an incredible oil price rise next year, Venezuela is heading for a tough time...even if it still has record oil prices...so much is mismanagement.

Venezuela and money, money

When I was a child, my dad told me something big was coming for Venezuela's economy. He had been trying to explain to me in simple terms the unsustainable way in which our politicians were using our resources and - last but not least - our time...as he told me, it was not only about petrodollars wasted but generations lost.

Venezuela's Alpha & Omega

El Universal has an interesting article today about Venezuela's debt: 232,589 billion dollars. There are lots of promises the government won't be able to fulfil. The public debt amounts to 93,6 billion dollars. The Chinese fund amounts to 32 billion dollars. PDVSA owns 43 billion dollars. Lots of people ask for employment benefits. Hundreds of thousands of temporary employees the government hired for electoral purposes are expecting to get a permanent contract and extra benefits.

Where is the caudillo going to get more from?

Expect many more expropriations, expect a heavy devaluation after the December elections and expect bank intervention and the use of Venezuelans' savings to pay for salaries next year.

We still are having record oil prices.

Callyspongia vaginalis

This particularly colourful sponge can be found everywhere in the Caribbean, also along Venezuela's coast (for instance, at the now heavily polluted Morrocoy National Park).

Who gave this name to this species?

Enfin...

How can the BBC be so clumsy?

The BBC had this clip about ethnicity in the USA. It's supposed to be about how English America South of Canada evolved. And there is not a single mention of native Americans.

Die Militärs und die Regionalwahlen in Venezuela

Mitte Dezember gibt es Regionalwahlen in Venezuela. Die Venezolaner werden die meisten Gouverneure und Bundesstaatensparlamente des Landes auswählen können. Der von Chávez-Anhängern dominierte Wahlrat sorgt schon dafür, dass die Chávez-Kandidaten eine Sonderbehandlung bekommen.

Hier könnt Ihr eine Karte Venezuelas sehen, wo ich angezeigt habe, wo die Kandidaten der Chávez-Partei Militärs sind und wo nicht. Dunkelgrün sind solche Bundesstaaten, wo die von Chávez auserwählten Kandidaten Militärs - meistens ehemalige Putschisten von 1992 - sind. In Gelb sieht man einen Bundesstaat, wo der Kandidat ein ehemaliger AD-Politiker ist, der sich aber von der vierten Republik distanziert und so tut, als ob er nichts damit zu tun hätte.

Die Bundesstaaten in hellgrün sind solche, wo die gegenwärtigen Gouverneure und Kandidaten der Sozialitischen Einheitspartei Venezuelas nahe Verwandte von Militärs sind. Im Fall Barinas ist der Gouverneur Adan Chávez, der älteste Bruder des nationalen Caudillos. Im Fall von Falcón, Yaracuy und Delta sind die gegenwärtigen Gouverneure und Kandidaten Geschwister von Militärs.

Caracas wird nun eine Art von "Gauleiter" bekommen, der von Chávez höchstpersönlich ausgewählt wird.

Venezuelans and Facebookers

Mia Newman produced a nice interactive map where you can see how Facebook users from one country are connected to the rest of the world. As far as I see, the patterns are rather clear: you get most connections in countries where there is a lot of expats or from where the country has lots of immigrants.

For Venezuela things are like this: people in Venezuela tend to connect to people in Colombia, in Spain, in Mexico, in Peru and in Chile. I suspect most connections to the South American countries are from immigrants of those countries reconnecting to their relatives, even if Venezuelans are increasingly leaving their country for more secure pastures. Colombia is much safer these days.

And most people in Spain connected to Venezuela are - this is my educated guess- Venezuelan expats, a lot of them with recent Spanish roots.