Saturday, 15 April 2017

Why is there no way Chavismo will accept democracy?

Bloody Pinochet gave up power and so did the racist Apartheid regime in South Africa. The communist governments in Poland and Czechoslovakia likewise accepted defeat and change at the late eighties. So: why can't Chavistas do the same? Wouldn't it be easier for them than for Pinochet's thugs? For instance, Pinochet's folk murdered several thousand civilians and most of the criminals felt they could come to terms with living in a society that might want to demand justice.

There are several reasons why i will be harder for top Chavista 'revolutionaries' to accept the arrival of democracy in Venezuela.

Firstly: many chavista honchos are deeply concerned they will be prosecuted and that there won't be any amnesty for them as there was for Pinochet's goons. Why would they think so? They did not throw thousands of people from helicopters as Pinochet's men did in Chile. Chavismo's well known crimes like the kilĺings during the coups of 1992 have already been brushed away when late president Caldera signed an amnesty that let Chávez and his accomplices take part in democratic elections and gain power in spite of the innocent blood they had spelt. Big chavistas have little to fear about being directly to the hundred or more cases where pro regime colectivos and soldiers killed civilians since 2003. And yet: there are probably some more crimes people do not know now about but that we will find about as soon as Chavistas lose power. It is hard to come up with an amnesty when the responsabilities  are still to be determined.
A lot of these Chavistas are, according to US authorities and other sources, involved in drug trafficking or simply in corruption involving many hundreds of millions of dollars -far more than what previous governments stole-. All corruption cases definitely sum up to over 30 billion dollars, as the FONDEN scandals clearly indicate. Because Chavistas pretended for so long to represent the poor and the amount of money they robbed they would be permanent targets of popular scorn. Even Romania, with its shortage economy, did not see such a crumbling economy in such a short time,

Secondly: Chavista honchos would have  very hard time abroad.
They cannot imagine their lives in places with such different cultures as Russia or China. Cuba is hardly an option: once Chavismo loses power in Venezuela, the Cuban dictatorship is bound to crumble sooner than later. Some Latin American countries like the Dominican Republic, Panama, Chile or Costa Rica could be offered for exile but even there big Chavistas would have a tough time given the large Venezuelan communities that would keep an eye on them. Maduro, Cabello,  Aissami, Rangel, Lucena and many dozens of others would not be able to keep dozens of bodyguards or expect Latin American governments to keep such numbers for them on a permanent basis in order to let them go shopping, visit restaurants and so on. Latin America is not Saudi Arabia.

Thirdly: the only place high ranking Chavistas can imagine themselves living is Venezuela but how could they feel remotely at ease being protected by a higly corrupt and incompetent army no longer under their control? The Chilean army, much more disciplined and less corrupt than the Venezuelan one, had to protect a few very bloody criminals apart from Pinochet, but these criminals were never as high profile and the transition took place before the mobile and social media era.

In spite of all this it is high time the opposition starts to make the thought excercise of what options within the context of international are there for these criminals .

The following is just a list of the top criminals who would prefer to let Venezuela bleed and burn before giving up power:

Nicolás Maduro and family
Chavez clan
Diosdado Cabello
Vladimir López
Tareq Aissami
Hugo Carvajal
Rafael Ramírez
Henry Rangel Silva
Clíver Alcalá Cordones

Bu there are many dozens of others

Sunday, 9 April 2017

Venezuela auf Deutsch schon wieder

Gestern hat Maduro wieder einige Sachen gesagt, die uns Venezolaner schon seit 1999 vertraut sind, die aber die deutschen Journalisten kaum übermitteln, wenn sie über mein Land sprechen.

Es ärgert mich zutiefst, wenn selbst die Sender ZDF und ARD, für die jedes Haushalt etwa 17 Euro Gebühren zahlen muß, die Positionen in Venezuela fast mit dem selben Wortschatz ausdrücken, die Maduro verwendet: sie sprechen ständig über die Opposition als Konservativen und die Regierung als Sozialisten. Das wäre, als ob man die Sprache der Linken benutzen würde, um alle außer ihnen zu beschreiben.

Erstens müssen wir klar stellen: die Opposition, die schon im Jahr 2015 die klare Mehrheit der Stimmen erhielt, besteht aus vielen Parteien. Nur eine bedeutende Partei, Primero de Justicia, ist etwas, was eher den Christdemokraten entspricht. Die meisten der anderen Parteien - und ja, wir haben niederländische Verhältnisse, was Parteizersplitterung anbelangt- sind Sozialdemokraten oder noch etwas links davon. Wenn man darüber hinaus die Stellung der Regierung zur Schuldentillgung oder Militärausgaben versus Geld für Gesundheit oder Bildung analysiert - kein deutscher Journalist scheint dazu Zeit zu haben- wird man Schwierigkeiten haben, die Regierung Maduros irgendwie mit dem Begriffvon Sozial in Verbindung zu bringen.

"Wenn eine Regierung von rechts die politische Macht nehmen würd, würden wir sie mit der bürgerlich-militären Macht wegputschen und wir würden die Revolution radikalisieren".

"Selbst eine Regierung, die durch manipulierte Wahlen wie die von 2015 an die Macht kommen würde, würde in einer Woche (gestürzt werden), denn dieses Volk würde rebellieren, wenn so eine Regierung mit ihrem Wirtschaftsprogramm kommen würde".
Die Opposition hat Ende 2015 trotzt allerlei Schikanen durch Regierung und Militärs eine klare Mehrheit erhalten, auch wenn seitdem die Nationalversammlung de facto fast völlig entmachtet ist.

Es wäre schön, wenn deutsche Journalisten unsere Lage ein bisschen besser erklären würden. Ich bin mir dessen bewusst, daß Venezuela in Deutschland nicht dasselbe Interesse erweckt als Russland oder Syrien, Ägypten oder viele anderen Länder, aber das Land verdient eine bessere Analyse als die, die sie jetzt von deutschen Medien hat.

Zur Zeit wird die Regierung Maduros alles unternehmen, um viele Regionalparteien verschwinden zu lassen und Schlüßelfiguren der Opposition hinter Gitter zu bringen - viele sind schon da-. Davon wird die deutsche Presse wahrscheinlich nichts berichten, sondern schon wieder was von "Konservativen haben in Venezuela x% der Stimmen erzielt und Sozialisten y und es gibt Proteste". Oder irre ich mich nun?

Venezuela, infinitesimal calculus and dictatorship

I have come to believe one of the strategies used by the Chavista regime is to let people get used to Venezuela sinking in chaos.
Both Venezuelan opposition people and journalists have been saying Venezuela is becoming a dictatorship since probably 1999.
And the fact it is doing so in slow motion does not make it more real.

Let's see.

Venezuelan in US newspaper

and The Economist in 2016 talks about getting closer to military rule (although, actually, Venezuela had a primarily military-lead government since 1999.

The regime wants the world to get used to it by taking a bit more of freedom now, pretending to give back some of it the next day, collaborating with foreign charlatans who demand dialogue from the opposition even time after time and freeing some token opposition member while jailing two more.

Those who want freedom for Venezuela need to think how to break this trend. How to prevent people from accepting further abuses by the criminal forces of chavismo.