(updated) Chávez stirbt und die Militärs und der Chávez-Clan planen

Chávez liegt im Sterben, auch wenn seine Kumpels das nicht zugeben wollen. Und Venezuela, das immer autokratisch regiert wird, muss dulden, dass die Militärs weiter als die Herren der Nation entscheiden, was zunächst passieren soll: sie treffen sich im Palais des Präsidenten und diskutieren mit der Bolibourgeoisie, mit Chávez' Clan und mit seinen Kumpels.

Der Leiter der Leibstandarte, Ornella Ferreira, erklärte: "mit Chávez alles, ohne ihn, nichts". Seine Aussagen waren politisch gefärbt, anti-pluralistisch und schlicht verfassungswidrig. Es gibt aber schon lange kein Staatsrecht mehr in meinem Land.

Stellen wir uns vor, die Chavistas sind gezwungen, endlich zu erkennen, dass Chávez nicht mehr lebt. Dann müsste man in 30 Tagen Neuwahlen haben. Das heisst: Anfang April. Wird das passieren? Das ist nicht so sicher: das Obergericht ist zur Zeit eine Puppe des Chavismus.

Oh, Mann...Maduro sagt nun bei einer Cadena, die Feinde des Kommandants Chávez hätten ihn mit Krebs angesteckt...ein Angestellter der US-Botschaft wird abgeschoben...im Süden nichts Neues.

Die letzten Tage des Caudillos sind da

The caudillo is back in Venezuela

Yes, he is. To die?

He admitted he "trusts in his doctors". He twitted for the first time since November. But how long will he live? Keeping secrecy in Venezuela will be much more difficult than in Castro Island.

He had to arrive again in the wee hours of the night, just like a certain character of a book written by Bram Stoker.

Jorge Arriaza, Chávez's son-in-law and minister for "the Popular Power of Science and Innovation", announced fireworks will be use to celebrate the arrival...this really sounds like in North Korea.

The Infanta and Twitter

(updated)

María Gabriela Chávez, Hugo's Oldest, hadn't twitted since 5 January (until today Thursday morning, 10 January). Before that, she was a rather copious twitter user. Today she changed the image she had as profile. Before, it was one of Chávez as a young lieutenant with some kitsch poem he had written for her.

Now you can see the new profile picture. Does that have any meaning? We do know since 6 January new security measures were taken at the medical centre after so many leaks occurred.  María Gabriela is obviously restraining herself...probably re-assessing (specially after her phone call with the family of a famous comediant who died on 5.1). If you are a Chavista security official, please, give us some insight. Just joking. Peace and calm down!

Isabela and Catalina didn't have twitter

Chávez Schwiegersohn und Minister der Volksmacht für Technologie sagt

Jorge Arriaza, Schwiegersohn des Hugo Chávez und - ganz ganz zufällig - auch "Minister der Volksmacht für Wissenschaft, Technologie und Innovation", erklärt nun, dass alles, was in Twitter über die Gesundheit des "comandante-presidente" steht, Lug und Trug sei, denn der Führer habe einen ruhigen Tag verbracht.

Die ägyptischen Pharaonen haben zumindest nachhaltige Werke unterstützt

Arriaza befindet sich zur Zeit in Cuba, genauso wie der Vizepräsident Nicolás Maduro und seine Frau Cilia Flores, die ganz ganz zufällig die Procuradora der Republik ist.

Arriaza hat vor vielen Jahren an der öffentlichen Universidad Central de Venezuela Ausländische Studien studiert und konnte dank des damals schon vorhandenen Stipendiumprogramms Gran Mariscal de Ayacucho im Ausland studieren. Zur Zeiten sagen die useful idiots des Chavismo im Ausland, das alles sei zu Zeiten des Chávez eingeführt worden.

Nun zurück zur Gesundheit des Comandantes: was wir schon vorahnen können, ist dass er am 10. Januar bei der Nationalen Versammlung nicht auftreten wird.

A wild, wild bet

First of all: I have to stress the following is just gut feeling. I have the impression Chávez' honchos will keep talking about how serious Chávez's condition is until late 15 or very early 16 December...and then they will tell Venezuelans how Chávez is having a wonderful recovery, they will communicate what he said to them and they invite people to celebrate their caudillo's recovery by going to vote en masse for the PSUV candidates. Chávez's actual state is inconsequential to this.

Who wants to live forever? (denn die Toten reiten schnell)

Well, obviously Chávez...that's not bad if he didn't want to rule forever. He is back in Venezuela, but as Daniel says, he again chose a very strange hour to come back from his home in Cuba.

What do I think? Whether the  military caudillo is ill or not, he is pulling Venezuelans' legs. He is acting like a drama Queen trying to play on whether he is dead-ill or not in order to excite his fans and let his enemies waste time wondering and not acting.

If we talk about Chávez, we don't talk about the mess he and his big honchos are carrying out. This will go on for months or years unless we simply invest more of our energies into a campaign to educate people about the way Chavistas are plundering the nation.

Another thing I have been thinking lately: couldn't we learn a little about cognitive bias, prospect theory and the evolution of happiness in Venezuela and how our country differs from other places where people do not think they are living in El Dorado?

Chavez-o-Metre

I started two polls: one for Venezuelan citizens and the other for non-Venezuelan citizens.

Give us your gut feeling. What do you think is going on?

The caudillo won't be going to the Mercosur Summit on Friday. Miguel was saying Chavista honchos are trying to keep Chávez safe and quiet until 10 January, when he will have to go to the National Assembly to formally start his new term.

Me? I haven't got a clue. I wait. I think we need to have plan A, B and C for any of the possible scenarios awaiting us in the Land of Grace. One of the problems with the opposition is that it keeps betting or waiting for X or Y to happen, without any elaborate plan. And we should know better: en Venezuela todo puede pasar.

Is it better to live in Colombia or Cuba than in Venezuela now?

According to The Economist probably yes. My guess: your parents may be able to buy less whisky or petrol with their salary if they live in Colombia or Cuba than in Venezuela, but you would be less likely to get shot dead.

And perhaps that's also why Hugo is flying to Cuba for treatment for the eleventh time in 17 months...or perhaps not? Or perhaps it's just for the secrecy Cuba offers?

Better be born in Colombia than Venezuela, PPP notwithstanding

Pravda with bananas

Anyone who ever read Pravda at least before Gorbachev came to power would recognise the style...but in Venezuela things get a little bit tackier. Yesterday honcho Diosdado Cabello announced Chávez was going to Cuba for some new treatment...nothing wrong, just to make him stronger...and the national television channel - which is nothing but a propaganda channel for the Chavez government - says now Twitter has been  flooded by messages in support of the Comandante.

They talk about "complementary phrase" of the treatment.

Genesener Militärführer Venezuelas zurück nach Kuba für Behandlung

Das sagt uns jetzt sein Kumpel Diosdado Cabello: der Comandante-Presidente wird einige Wochen in Kuba sein, um sich einer hyperbaren Oxygenierung zu unterziehen und sonst medizinisch behandelt zu werden. Chávez konnte das selbst nicht mitteilen. Chávez hat seit dem 2.11 keine Twittermeldung von sich gegeben. Er war auch fast nirgendwo zu sehen. Er soll aber kerngesund sein. Alles klar.

Der Comandante höchstpersönlich will uns schon am 10.1 seinen Nationalplan bei der Nationalversammlung vorlesen...natürlich, ohne auf Fragen zu antworten, er wird aber da sein.

Vor zwanzig Jahren haben Militärs wie Diosdado Cabello versucht, die korrupte aber demokratische Regierung des Carlos Andrés Pérez zu stürtzen. Chávez hatte das einige Monate davor auch versucht, auch damals Zivilisten und treue Militär umgebracht und sass im Gefängnis. Viele Bürger wurden in beiden Putscversuchen umgebracht, wahrscheinlich genauso viele wie beim Caracazo 1989. Manche behaupten, während des Caracas wurden zwischen 250 und 3000 Menschen getötet, es gab aber nie eine Liste von Vermissten, die über die erste Zahl hinausgegangen wäre...dennoch benutzten die Militärs den Caracazo (der zum Teil von denselben Menschen durchgeführt wurde) als Ausrede, um ihre Gewalttaten von 1992 zu rechtertigen.

Einer der Männer, die in diesem Video spricht, ist Arne Chacón. Nun soll Arne Chacón wegen Korruption verhaftet sein...auch wenn niemand weiss, wo er wirklich ist. Sein Bruder, Jesse Chacón, ist immer noch ein wichtiger Bonze und behauptet, er habe nie gewusst, dass Arne in ein paar Jahren zu einem Milliardär wurde...auch wenn der Rest des Landes das schon wusste.

Diese sind die Herren, die die deutsche Linke-Partei unterstützt.

Do you read Spanish?

Read this

Perhaps they shake him up a wee bit for another round.

The show must go on.

The incredible Venezuela...(denn die Toten reiten schnell)

Without any public discussion a new law came into force whereby you become an organ donor by default. I wonder: does this law apply to Chávez? By the way: the caudillo hasn't twitted since 1 November, now officially a record.

Lots of people are wondering whether the new law in the country with the highest murder rate in South America will bring a reality like what the old film Coma showed.

And on another matter: what has happened to the US American who was detained for being a spy?

The caudillo's absence and Venezuelans' logic

Hugo Chávez hasn't tweeted since 1 November. Is he resting? This is becoming a record now.

Giordani mentions petrol prices are way too low. Does he have plans?

Chávez has repeatedly mentioned petrol is heavily subsidized but he hasn't had the courage to raise prices just yet. Recently I had a "conversation" with a Chavista. She told me petrol comes from oil and as Venezuela has oil galore, people have the right to get it for (almost) nothing. Apparently, she didn't pay attention during chemistry classes at school. Let me tell you: in Venezuela we were supposed to learn at school much more about oil processing than in many other countries.

Jose Tadeo Monagas: one of the most unpopular presidents of Venezuela, a state is called after him

Bad news for the Venezuelan caudillo

Obama won again. Venezuela's caudillo had previously expressed he "preferred" Obama getting re-elected but we know he was lying. It's much harder for him to use Obama as the Bogeyman than someone like Bush or Romney.

Chávez was probably expecting US conservatives to use his statement to increase their chances: "look, Chávez is an ally of Obama!" And indeed that is what happened. But most US Americans had a thousand other priorities. What the military man from Venezuela's Western Llanos may say doesn't really matter that much to most abroad but for Cubans and Nicaraguan politicians, Russian weapon dealers, Lukashenko and a few others.

The current president of Venezuela couldn't get the much needed Bogeyman

Die perfekte Unternehmensführung im 13. Jahr der bolivarischen Revolution

Der Caudillo hat gewonnen. Mit einem Erdölpreis, der seit Jahren viel höher ist, als was die Welt zwischen 1983 und 1998 erfuhr, konnte Chávez Milliarden Dollar in der Form von Darlehen aus China benutzen, um chinesische Kühlschränke, Küchen, Waschmaschinen und Fernseher sowie US-amerikanischen Reis, nicaraguanische Bohnen und argentinisches Fleisch kaufen und in Venezuela sehr preisgünstig verkaufen. Mit staatlichen Mitteln - u.a. fast alle LKWs der staatlichen Erdölgesellschaft - und mit Hilfe fast aller staatlichen Beamten, konnte die militär-PSUV Maschine mehr Leute mobilisieren und Stimmen erzielen als die Opposition.

Das war vor einigen Monaten...seit Jahren nichts Neues

Chaos, thy real name is Venezuela

Der von der Regierung dominierte nationale Wahlrat hat zugelassen, dass eine Partei, die nicht mehr den Oppositionskandidat unterstützte, sein Bild auf dem Wahlzettel benutzen konnte. Dadurch haben zahlreiche Menschen Capriles Gesicht gesehen und das Logo dieser Partei daneben angekreuzt. Damit hat die Opposition etwa 0.4% verloren. Das war nur einer der vielen Tricks. 

Dennoch weiss der Caudillo, dass viele Leute hoch unzufrieden sind mit der Art und Weise, wie das Land regiert wird. Manche seiner Anhänger denken immer noch, dass der Führer das nicht weiss...dass die Leute, die er neben sich hat, ihn belügen. Er muss also zeigen, dass das tatsächlich so ist, dass er wirklich was tut.

Der Caudillo hat beschlossen, ein neues Ministerium zu errichten...er hatte uns schon mit solchen Ministerien wie das Ministerium der Volksmacht für die Energieversorgung und das Ministerium der Volksmaht für die Justizvollzugsanstalt beglückt. Und so schuf er das Ministerium der Volksmacht für die Überwachung der Die neue Ministerin hat prompt ein Twitterkonto kreiert und zwar mit dem Namen @gestionperfecta, perfekte Verwaltung bzw perfekte Unternehmensführung.

Und siehe: es folgen Taten. Der Caudillo hat einen Erlass herausgegeben, um den Notzustand für die Gefängnisse auszurufen...das geschieht am Ende des 13. Jahres der sogenannten Revolution. Es gab keinen Krieg in der Zwischenzeit, es gab kein Erdbeben. Es gab nur Chavismus. Und der Chavismus ruft immer noch den Notzustand aus.

How ill is Chávez really?

This is what you think:

68 persons took part in the poll. I think Chávez has greatly exaggerated his illness, but that's my guess and on the right you see some other people's guesses - foreigners and Venezuelans alike. What is it? Anything could be right: this is Venezuela.

In any case, today is his birthday. He has been ruling Venezuela for 14 years and he wants to rule it at least for 6 more years, even if he has said he may want to be president for a longer period. I hope he lives a long life...and goes to trial for his violations of human rights and the way he mismanaged Venezuela's longest oil boom ever.

Ps. and I see now Toro has finally realised Chávez may not die any time soon. He talks about how Dan Rather got it so wrong, but in reality Toro himself was also rather sure about Hugo I's prompt demise. I think gringos and people basing their data on US sources were feeding themselves over and over again from the same anonymous sources. We have seen that before.

Syrian children get murdered, Chávez sends diesel to Syrian regime

We hear about the massacre of 32 Syrian children during the latest clashes between the Assad troops and the rebels. And just a few days ago the Chávez regime shipped diesel to that Assad regime badly needed to move their tanks. The Western had applied sanctions to Syria and Chávez helps his pal to circumvent such sanctions.

The Chávez military regime has already sent three diesel shipments to the Syrian forces. A fourth one is planned.

Picture taken in Venezuela in 2006. Chávez next to Assad. "Breaking the Blockage. Venezuela  is to be respected!"

Will Brazil say nothing? Colombia? No, because they have a wonderful trade surplus with the Chávez regime.

And on the other side, we have this: US troops killed yet again another peaceful family...collateral damage, like many thousand of other cases in the last few years.

People never learn.

ADVLATOR MAXIMVS

I asked you to tell me who you thought the greatest sycophants among Chávez's minions were.

The poll allowed for multiple selection.

Adulator maximus

And this is what you voted for:

Clearly, the former military coup-monger Diosdado Cabello comes first. Then we have former bus driver and current minister of foreign affairs Nicolás Maduro (my grandparents were farmers but then they didn't tried to deal with international relations or drive a bus). On third place we get notorious police officer Freddy Bernal. I agree with most choices but for Maduro. I think Maduro honestly loves Chávez. He is thus not really a sycophant but a true puppet. Most of the others are more on the profiteering side.

I put in green those who were military or whose dad was a military coupster (Izarra). I didn't put Adán Chávez on the  list because we know: familia es familia. This is about pure sycophants.

If Chávez really is healthy again (there are many who think he never was ill, something foreign journos dismiss as outrageous conspiracy theory), the whole discussion about a dauphin or dauphine becomes moot. Else, this is the list to watch, plus Chávez's daughters.

Chávez without cancer, beginning of new stories?

The military caudillo Hugo Chávez declared on his return from Cuba that his cancer treatment has been a success. From 1998 until a month or so before the cancer rumours spread, he and his people were denouncing plots against  his life every third months or so. Once Chávez announced he had cancer, the assassination attempts disappeared and the drama took another style.

Now that Chávez has announced for the second time that he has overcome cancer one can only wonder: will he and his employees start announcing once again about "magnicidios" on a quarterly base?

Stay tuned, it's election time.

Chávez tweeting and other things

This is Chávez's twitter account pattern since 1 March.

Does it mean something? Perhaps, perhaps not. Capriles should rather outvote and not just outlive the caudillo. Even if the caudillo's wealthy minions will probably get into a cataplectic state for a time, we can be sure the most powerful already have a plan B.

Why is Capriles' popularity still so low compared to that of the caudillo?

There are many factors. Among other things, Capriles doesn't have the petrodollars Chávez has. Chávez's regime gives Haier washing machines and refrigerators by the hundreds of thousands. Chávez has all the state media and Capriles has only access to channels that can only reach 30% of the population. Even after two former Chavista honchos started to tell their stories about corruption within the regime, their former colleagues - dodders to the petrostate - remain unrepentant...and most Chavista followers either don't care or don't understand what level of corruption have been attained.

But this is not the only reason why Chávez remains so popular. Capriles also lacks charisma. The popularity of one is largely based on the lack of charisma of the other. And why is this? The main reason is rather technical: he doesn't have oratory skills...at least not yet. And why is that? There are again many factors, but one of them is his previous lack of interest for reading. This is fairly common among Venezuelans, even among those from wealthy origins. Capriles has got formal education but unlike Chávez, he hasn't probably read more than what he needed to read to finish his studies or to understand technical reports. Chávez may not know that mankind is older than 25 centuries and he has read in a very chaotic manner, but he still has read key books and fragments of stories that touch all kinds of people people...Not for nothing did he read Les Miserables and the Count of Monte Cristo while he was in jail for his bloody coup in 1992-93. He has also trained for decades to tell all kind of stories - first in the soldier's barracks, then in the palace and on every TV. 

Capriles is visiting Venezuela house-by-house. This can seem impressive for some but it is not very efficient. He needs those oratory skills to address the masses and he needs to present his message in a moving story. 

Chávez, on the other hand, cannot rely forever on Haier refrigerators and the sympathies derived from his countless shows of the past. He needs to start travelling through Venezuela in August at the latest.