Venezuela, a bigger picture

Maduro said now the central government ("I") won't be giving any money to the regions where opposition mayors and governors were elected until they recognise him as president of Venezuela.
The military strongman Cabello, head of the National Assembly, declared in anger in front of the cameras that he won't let opposition deputies speak at the Assembly until they do the same.

It is sure that Henrique Capriles and Leopoldo López will be prosecuted for the violent actions of Monday. Capriles called off a rally for today.

People are tense in Venezuela.

And yet, I think now mostly about this:

Oil prices...the Alpha and Omega of Venezuela's drama. I am not a seer, so I try to to see if another perspective gives a new light...prices are stalling. Unless there is a new world conflict, they might just linger in this area and this is not enough for a country completely addicted to petrodollars.

 

Chavismo will try to provoke as much violence as possible. It will try to say every blackout, every problem happening in Venezuela, is caused by outside forces and the "Fifth Column".

Venezuelans will become a bit more isolated as Globovisión disappears as critical media. It already had little impact outside the main urban centres.

But problems will increase fairly rapidly and the government won't be able to make everyone believe it was the CIA that produced a new blackout or that provided the bullet that killed the son.

Inflation will keep soaring. The Chinese will become more impatient. Friends from poor, traditionally officialdom-voting areas, told me there was a lot of pot-banging in their neighbourhoods. People are unhappy.

If the opposition plays it right, this could be our moment, but we can't expect things to change in a week or a month. This goes into middle-term, not long-term, just middle-term...if we play it right.




I said it before: Venezuela, very sadly, needs to go through purgatory. But then there is a chance.