Apologies for the bad quality of this picture. I just drew it on a run.
This shows the density of the group who voted for Chavez' reform proposal in Carabobo on the 2nd of December of 2007: the redder the region, the highest the number of Chavistas per square km. (based on CNE figures on votes for Si as shown in the table below).
There is no rocket science here. The NO won in Carabobo, as in all major metropolitan areas. We know Chavismo is still strong in the poorest areas, but it is rapidly losing ground there. We also know it is particularly strong the farther you get from main cities.
Now, the map is interesting for other reasons: here you can see very easily the main regions where the opposition needs to focus to win national elections. A more granular mapping would be even better, but I haven't found one showing parroquias. The Municipio Valencia as a whole has a lower density of Chavista voters than Los Guayos, but obviously, there are big concentrations of Chavistas in the Southern part of it, in the poorer areas, specially in Miguel Pena. There, in Miguel Pena there are over 58000 people who voted for Chavez (or at least that is what the CNE says, read further). It would be very red in the map if we had the information about what its exact borders within the Valencia municipality are.
The opposition needs to address those people, ask them what they want and also think of proposals for the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT of that population (something few people in Venezuela seem to think about).
Of course, one should not forget the less densely populated areas: conquering big amounts of territory might have an important psychological effect on everybody (this is specially the case for local elections).
This shows the density of the group who voted for Chavez' reform proposal in Carabobo on the 2nd of December of 2007: the redder the region, the highest the number of Chavistas per square km. (based on CNE figures on votes for Si as shown in the table below).
There is no rocket science here. The NO won in Carabobo, as in all major metropolitan areas. We know Chavismo is still strong in the poorest areas, but it is rapidly losing ground there. We also know it is particularly strong the farther you get from main cities.
Now, the map is interesting for other reasons: here you can see very easily the main regions where the opposition needs to focus to win national elections. A more granular mapping would be even better, but I haven't found one showing parroquias. The Municipio Valencia as a whole has a lower density of Chavista voters than Los Guayos, but obviously, there are big concentrations of Chavistas in the Southern part of it, in the poorer areas, specially in Miguel Pena. There, in Miguel Pena there are over 58000 people who voted for Chavez (or at least that is what the CNE says, read further). It would be very red in the map if we had the information about what its exact borders within the Valencia municipality are.
The opposition needs to address those people, ask them what they want and also think of proposals for the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT of that population (something few people in Venezuela seem to think about).
Of course, one should not forget the less densely populated areas: conquering big amounts of territory might have an important psychological effect on everybody (this is specially the case for local elections).
| Municipio | Sí voters for part A | % SI for part A | hard core Chavistas per square km (as SI voters) |
| Bejuma | 7528 | 44,19% | 16.05 |
| Carlos Arvelo | 27025 | 62,11% | 32.37 |
| Diego Ibarra | 21786 | 66,2% | 275.77 |
| Guacara | 29837 | 48,23% | 180.83 |
| Juan José Mora | 29837 | 68,82% | 37.17 |
| Libertador | 28120 | 57,17% | 30.18 |
| Los Guayos | 26548 | 56,22% | 363.67 |
| Miranda | 5585 | 56,68% | 34.69 |
| Montalban | 3739 | 44,54% | 34.94 |
| Naguanagua | 20898 | 35,94% | 111.16 |
| Puerto Cabello | 33997 | 53,07% | 78.33 |
| San Diego | 9137 | 26,46% | 86.2 |
| San Joaquín | 10695 | 54,63% | 84.21 |
| Valencia | 125798, of which 58718 are in Miguel Pena | 40,78% (53,95% in Miguel Pena) | 201.92 |
In Carlos Arvelos you have a little bit more SI voters than in Los Guayos, but in Los Guayos you have them all in a much more reduced place.
You can find a post of Caracas Chronicles here that talks also about the regional differences and what the opposition needs to address. Katy mentioned there the opposition parties need to go to the Llanos and do more work there.
I think what Katy said about minding the countryside is very important. Still, one needs to take into account the limited resources the opposition has and then think of ways to optimize one's efforts.
Just one interesting detail about the referendum in the Manuel Pena area: out of 62
voting centres, there is NO INFORMATION for 10 of them...and that in an urban area, in Venezuela's third largest city. How sloppy can the CNE be?
Voting Centre s SI-Block A votes for the Miguel Pena region within the Valencia area)
| Anexo de Ruiz Pineda | 977 |
| Anexo Doctor Rafael Guerra Mendez | 216 |
| Centro Escolar Construccion Ford | 217 |
| Centro Preescolar Simon Bolivar | 158 |
| Colegio Luisa Caceres de Arismendi | 777 |
| Colegio Obra Social Don Bosco | 1355 |
| Colegio Ramon Ignasio Mendez | 244 |
| Colegio Miguel Angel Perez | 1853 |
| Colegio Antonio Ricaurte | 2111 |
| Escuela Basica Mon. Luis Henriquez | 770 |
| Escuela Basica Jose Regino Pena | 4211 |
| Escuela Basica Miguel G. Granadillo | 1423 |
| Escuela Bella Vista II | 1539 |
| Escuela Prof. Raul Villarroel | 2157 |
| Escuela 19 de Abril | 863 |
| Escuela Basica Bicentenario III | 207 |
| Escuela Basica Bolivariana La Paz | 405 |
| Escuela Basica El Milagro de Dios | 392 |
| Escuela Basica El Socorro | 762 |
| Escuela Basica Estadal General Diego Ibarra | UNKNOWN |
| Escuela Basica Estadal Trapichito I | UNKNOWN |
| Escuela Basica Irma Vivas de Marin | 177 |
| Escuela Basica Jose Felix Rivas | 255 |
| Escuela Basica Lomas de Funval | 1391 |
| Escuela Basica M. Arocha | UNKNOWN |
| Escuela Basica Ruiz Pineda II | 1786 |
| Escuela Basica Jose Antonio Paez | 2460 |
| Escuela Fe y Alegria Dr. Leopoldo | 1894 |
| Escuela Nacional El Prado | 872 |
| Escuela Nacional Isidro Ramirez | 2121 |
| Escuela Nacional Manuel Alcazar | 1806 |
| Escuela Ruiz Pineda | 1980 |
| Escuela General Dr. Fco Espejo | 2846 |
| Grupo escolar Alfredo Pietri | 763 |
| Grupo escolar Isabel Fernandez de Ichazu | 1029 |
| Grupo escolar Nacional Jose Pocaterra | 891 |
| Grupo escolar nacional Simon Rodriguez | 1320 |
| Grupo escolar Padre Bergeretti | 1285 |
| Grupo escolar Ramon Diaz Sanchez | 673 |
| Jardin de Infancia Bolivariano San Agustin | UNKNOWN |
| Jardin de Infancia Gustavo Machado | UNKNOWN |
| Jardin de Infancia Venezuela | 331 |
| Liceo Alejo Zuloaga | 1816 |
| Liceo Ponce Bello | 2234 |
| Liceo Alicia Ferrer | 932 |
| Preescolar Bolivariano El Consejo | 309 |
| Preescolar Lomas de Funval | UNKNOWN |
| Preescolar Ricardo Urriera | 1965 |
| U.E. Integral Lomas de Funval | 1572 |
| Unidad Educativa Colegio Luz de Carabobo | UNKNOWN |
| Unidad Educativa Creacion Libertador I | 172 |
| Unidad Educativa El Vecino Mayor | 465 |
| Unidad Educativa Felipe Nery Pulido | 329 |
| Unidad Educativa Manuel Vicente Romero Garcia | UNKNOWN |
| Unidad Educativa Rolando Carrillo | 230 |
| Unidad Educativa Rosalia Campins de Herrera | UNKNOWN |
| Unidad Escolar Caribay | UNKNOWN |
| Unidad Escolar Dr. Enrique Tejera | 1528 |
| Unidad Escolar Luis Beltran Pietro Figueroa | 141 |
| Unidad Escolar Negro Primero | 1317 |
| Unidad Escolar Reny Otolina | 1081 |
| Unidad Escolar Santa Maria de Calatrava | 110 |
| Total of SI A votes in that parroquia: | 58718 |
The opposition needs to
- do more research on the distribution of people who still support this regime and address their concerns
- Give special attention to areas where it can reach the most amount of people specially for national elections, without forgetting the more far away regions
- Work out a strategy to traverse the less densely but still demographically very important areas while optimizing efforts (a version of the traveling salesman problem)
- Find out what is going on with the lots of "no results" specially in places where the opposition lost. 10 schools with no results in Miguel Pena? Hello?
Actually what the opposition needs to do is to look at what's happening in San Diego (the strongest anti-Chavez area in Carabobo if not the country) and see what's working there and try to address the differences with other municipios.
ReplyDeleteThen they can sell it to people and improve people lives.
Then Chavez will never win.
I think both things need to be taken into account: what is Scarano doing in San Diego and what are the special needs of regions such as Los Guayos.
ReplyDeleteScarano is a good manager, but you have to take into account Los Guayos and similar places have other challenges. The average income in Sann Diego is certainly lower than that of Northern Valencia, it is rather average stuff, but still, they are better off than the people in Los Guayos.