Another view of regional preferences...and indifference

You can see here the list votes per state for 2010 elections, according to the Consejo Nacional Electoral. In the first chart you see total votes. Notice how the alternative forces clearly won in the most populated states. That is why the CNE had decided to do a little bit more of gerrymandering in those regions.

And look now at the second chart. Here you have the voting as percentage. You can see very clearly how abstention is the main "force" in many states. Abstention is clearly higher in almost every poorer district. There are many factors at play here: people are repelled by local caudillos that no one there really wanted, people there often think there is no hope whatever they do or they simply care less. Still, one that is often overseen by the top leaders of the alternative parties is that most people in those regions have no transportation means...unless it is a PDVSA bus mobilizing to vote for the military regime.

As I said in earlier posts, the opposition cannot just wait and wish people in those areas don't vote for the PSUV. The alternative forces have to go to those areas. Very unfortunately, some "national" party leaders are actually regional feudal lords (Táchira's governor, Carabobo's governor) and none seems to want to move his or her ass unless he/she is declared the national candidate. As usual in Venezuela, everybody wants to be the absolute leader and almost no one wants to do the hard work that is needed. Alternative forces do not seem to be studying the country's demographics. Most people do indeed live in cities, but "cities" does not mean Caracas, Maracaibo and Northern Valencia.

It is true alternative forces have very little financial resources and it is true Chávez thugs organise mobbing actions everywhere the alternative forces try to spread their message. Still, there is no way around this: the alternative forces must start now to set up networks everywhere in Venezuela. They need to do that on a clever basis. Parties need to merge when needed. They need to send not just "the annointed one", but teams with a common message and a programme. Journalists also have to start asking hard questions to the alternative "leaders". What is the reason for COPEI, Proyecto Venezuela and Convergencia, among other parties, to exist at the same time? What's the different apart from their caudillos? What are the ideological or programmatic differences between AD, UNT, Voluntad Popular and others?

Venezuela is no longer a democracy. It is an autocracy in a very similar way as Russia now. Leaders need to grow up. Most importantly, national teams with a clear message of pluralism and plans for sustainable development need to take hold.