UPDATEDHow to steal votes and destroy democracy
I updated the maps according to the official sources as seen here (electoral districts).
The gerrymandering is worse than I thought in some regions. In others, like Miranda, things don't change much. As most opposition leaders and the national media are concentrated in Miranda and they think only on what they see, little interest will be spent to the rest of Venezuela.
I used the votes of the 2008 elections for governor that the government has on its site. Salas Feo (opposition) was the candidate for the opposition and Mario Silva (regime) for the regime.
If people voted in the same way for the opposition and we had the electoral districts we had until last year, you would see this:
6 deputies, we would get 4 out of 6
Now, after Tibisay and her accomplices carried out heavy gerrymandering, the regime would get the following (if people vote as they did in 2008):
7 nominal deputies, the regime would get 6, the opposition 1
Same amount of votes for each. That is gerrymandering and that is what the Venezuelan regime is doing. I suppose the Spanish government does not want to say anything about it...too many businesses are in peril.
Here you have the approximate votes as given for the governor in 2008. The numbers left and right of brackets represent the thousands of voters for officialdom and main opposition. As we said: allthough the total for the opposition is higher, this gerrymandering would enable the regime to win 6 out of 7 deputies:
What is the vice-president of the European Parliament and PSOE politician saying now?
Below you have the votes for the 2008 election of governor in my region.
| Votes 2008 | government | opposition | Total mil/opo | deputies |
| Libertador | 30142 | 22388 | ||
| Miguel Pena | 60699 | 48147 | ||
| Negro Primero | 2212 | 302 | ||
| Rafael Urdaneta | 30931 | 34839 | ||
| Santa Rosa | 14563 | 13528 | ||
| 138547 | 119204 | 257751 | 3 | |
| Naguanagua | 21815 | 35466 | ||
| Candelaria | 6323 | 8121 | ||
| Catedral | 928 | 1408 | ||
| El Socorro | 856 | 2135 | ||
| San Blas | 4054 | 8197 | ||
| San José | 7667 | 61972 | ||
| San Diego | 9145 | 24369 | ||
| 50788 | 141668 | 192456 | 1 | |
| Carlos Arvelo | 28955 | 15544 | ||
| Los Guayos | 26524 | 19382 | ||
| 55479 | 34926 | 90405 | 1 | |
| Bejuma | 8603 | 9323 | ||
| Miranda | 6120 | 3681 | ||
| Montalbán | 4760 | 4768 | ||
| Puerto Cabello | 39954 | 31959 | ||
| Juan José Mora | 16251 | 8678 | ||
| 75688 | 58409 | 134097 | 1 | |
| Diego Ibarra | 18941 | 12805 | ||
| Guacara | 31215 | 30759 | ||
| San Joaquín | 11292 | 9749 | ||
| 61448 | 53313 | 114761 | 1 | |
Before we had this
| government | opposition | total | deputies won | |
| Miguel Pena | 60699 | 48147 | ||
| Negro Primero | 2212 | 302 | ||
| Rafael Urdaneta | 30931 | 34839 | ||
| Santa Rosa | 14563 | 13528 | ||
| Candelaria | 6323 | 8121 | ||
| Catedral | 928 | 1408 | ||
| El Socorro | 856 | 2135 | ||
| San Blas | 4054 | 8197 | ||
| San José | 7667 | 61972 | ||
| 128233 | 178649 | 306882 | 2 | |
| Carlos Arvelo | 28955 | 15544 | ||
| Los Guayos | 26524 | 19382 | ||
| 55479 | 34926 | 90405 | 1 | |
| Bejuma | 8603 | 9323 | ||
| Miranda | 6120 | 3681 | ||
| Libertador | 30142 | 22388 | ||
| Montalbán | 4760 | 4768 | ||
| 49625 | 40160 | 89785 | 1 | |
| Naguanagua | 21815 | 35466 | ||
| Libertador | 30142 | 22388 | ||
| 51957 | 57854 | 109811 | 2 | |
| Puerto Cabello | 39954 | 31959 | ||
| Juan José Mora | 16251 | 8678 | ||
| 56205 | 40637 | 96842 | 1 | |
| Diego Ibarra | 18941 | 12805 | ||
| Guacara | 31215 | 30759 | ||
| San Joaquín | 11292 | 9749 | ||
| San Diego | 9145 | 24369 | ||
| 70593 | 77682 | 148275 | 2 |
Ps. thanks to the people of Súmate (news in Spanish) and Esdata for providing such valuable data.
hola Kepler,
ReplyDeleteNow you scare the hell out of me!
I know Esdata and they are very accurate with data.
When this is really the outcome (I do not doubt your skills for figuring this out) then the Venezuelan people are screwed.
But.... I also think that when the situation as it is now, in Venezuela, Chavez loses more and more votes.
Then it is possible that the system would work against Chavez.
I know that what you did is a lot of work. But.... what would happen when there is a chavista area, that will vote for the opposition?
Not that I believe in miracles anymore.
The question is what will and can the opposition do! I understand that this system will be approved in 72 hours.
After approving there is for the Venezuela only one way left, to get out of this dictatorship.
But this will cost a lot of blood.
This whole thing is more then horror.
saludos
Alpha
Alpha,
ReplyDeleteI simply added the numbers for those who voted for Silva and those for Salas according to the cne site.
I will put up all the data as excell or just paste it as table this evening (anyone can also get it from the links I added).
The registered voters are there for all to see. Many in the opposition top are waiting for a miracle, as usual.
This has to happen: the
people in Miguel Pena-Libertador (area in the pale-orange-skin shade) have to vote for oppo. The ratio in 2008 was 138 for chavismo against 119 now.
3 issues: 1) Salas could be doing a better job there, he isn't and he is dividing the opposition by thinking he is the royalty with his family party, 2) chavismo is likely to distribute massively all kinds of gadgets, food, etc to guarantee their win there and 3) the opposition hasn't put its act together with witnesses, they all want to be in Naguanagua-Prebo-Trigal,
they are underrepresented in Miguel Pena and Libertador and other regions
we are going to get gang-banged in that election and for the first time ever the whole cheating process for the election is out there in the open, in plain sight, clear as day, yet nobody says a word about it.
ReplyDeleteA note here in the paper, an interview there in globo but there is no sense of real alarm about it, no protest, no organisation till SURPRISE! you lose the thing and cry bloody murder.
...y despues dicen que guerra avisada no mata soldados
:(
Hi. I am getting reports from Miranda. It seems the situation there is more balanced, things don't change that much. Probably chavismo recognize it is better to cheat where people don't notice "so much".
ReplyDeleteI wonder what on Earth the people in my region are doing apart.
Sumate and esdata are alarmened, but our politicos? Bien, gracias.